Jo
Moir, Political Editor
Analysis
– If anyone is going to convince Christopher Luxon it’s
time to step aside from the prime ministership, it’s his
forerunner and friend Sir John Key.
The pair are
close, and throughout Luxon’s time at the helm he has
checked in almost weekly with the former prime
minister.
One of Luxon’s weaknesses in the top job has
been his inability to take feedback from colleagues, staff
or officials. That has even extended to Key on occasions,
where it’s understood Luxon has been keen to do most of the
talking while Key has been left to do the
listening.
Another Achilles’ heel is Luxon’s complete
lack of self-doubt.
It’s understood those two
personality traits have more recently extended to him not
reading focus group reports because much of the criticism is
that it’s Luxon who is the problem.
Key and Luxon
usually catch up at the weekend, and while their chat in the
next 48 hours is more likely to focus on what Luxon needs to
change to reclaim the narrative, if he has had any doubt
seep in about his future in the job then Key would also be
first port of call for how best to manage his
exit.
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Their talks come after a disastrous week for
Luxon bookended with woeful interviews on Monday and a
poll sliding National below 30, to 28.4 percent, on
Friday.
That Taxpayers’-Union Curia poll would see the
centre-left bloc slide into power, but only just, with 61
seats to the coalition government’s 59.
This is the
second public poll to have National below 30 since October
last year – the same pollster had
National on 29.6.
Luxon says he doesn’t read into
or comment on polls, but the fact the two sliding National
below that red line of 30 were conducted by their own
internal pollster makes it more difficult for the prime
minister to ignore.
If National is going to hit the
nuclear button on a new leader it needs to consider the
political landscape at play.
For a start, a change of
leader does not always lead to a
change of fortunes.
Secondly, a new leader will be
coming into the job at the exact point in the electoral
cycle where the coalition parties are trying to present a
strong and stable government while simultaneously trying to
distinguish themselves from each other.
The step-up
from minister to prime minister is enormous on its own, let
alone when it also requires that person to work both with
and against experienced and politically savvy operators
David Seymour and Winston Peters.
National
MPs were already spooked before Friday’s poll
landed.
Luxon’s failure
to articulate a clear message on Iran early in the week
had some commenting that his communicating to the public,
via the media, had got worse over time rather than
better.
At this point the National Party looks to be
sitting on an orange alert, but it wouldn’t take much to
slide into red. The triggers for that will be either Luxon
deciding he’s had enough (the least likely of scenarios),
those closest to Luxon (his wife Amanda, and Key) convincing
him the best path is stepping aside, or the caucus and his
staff making it clear on Tuesday when Parliament is back
sitting that he no longer has their confidence.
Any
decision to change leader will need to consider what impact
it could have on National’s coalition partners.
Peters
and Seymour wouldn’t tolerate any change to the coalition
agreements and commitments already made by Luxon, and if a
fresh leader had desires to do so then it would be game-on
for New Zealand First and Act to renegotiate and ask a high
price.
While all of these considerations go on in the
background, those fancying themselves as the next prime
minister will be spending the weekend weighing up the pros
and cons.
Education Minister Erica Stanford has long
been tipped as a future leader, while Housing and Transport
Minister Chris Bishop will also be doing the
maths.
He’s on his way to India to watch the T20
Cricket World Cup final between
New Zealand and India in the wee hours of Monday morning
(NZT).
If things start moving fast back home at the
weekend, it wouldn’t be surprising if he got back on a plane
before the first ball was bowled.
Luxon’s last
engagement with the press gallery was on Wednesday at
Parliament.
RNZ bumped into him briefly on Friday
afternoon on the streets of Botany, but our questions all
went unanswered.
He currently isn’t scheduled to front
media again until his Monday morning regular slots, which is
a very long time in
politics.
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