The Centre-Left bloc could form a Government, but with
the finest possible margin according to the latest
Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll.
This poll shows
Labour gain 0.3 points to 34.4 percent, while National drops
2.9 points to 28.4 percent.
The Greens gain 0.2 points
to 10.5 percent, while New Zealand First drops 0.8 points to
9.7 percent. ACT gains 0.8 points to 7.5 percent, while Te
Pāti Māori gains 0.3 points to 3.2 percent.
Headline
results and more information about the methodology can be
found on the Taxpayers’ Union’s website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/tucur_mar2026poll
Minor
parties were TOP on 1.9 percent (+0.5 points), NZ Outdoors
and Freedom on 1.7 percent (+0.5 points), Vision NZ on 0.2
percent (-0.2 points), and New Conservatives on 0.8 percent
(+0.7 points).
This month’s results are compared to
the last Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll conducted
in February 2026, available at www.taxpayers.org.nz/0226_polltu,
which showed a hung Parliament.
The combined projected
seats for the Centre-Left increases 1 to 61. The combined
seats for the Centre-Right drops 1 to 59.
On these
numbers, the Centre-Left bloc could form a
Government.
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Labour gains 1 seat to 44, while National
drops 3 seats to 36. New Zealand First and the Greens both
remain on 13 seats. ACT gains 2 seats to 10, while Te Pāti
Māori remain on 4.
Polling on whether voters believed
Labour or National were better managers of specific
policies, National led on the Economy and Spending. Labour
led on Health, Poverty, Inflation, Education, Safety,
Housing, Environment, and not increasing
taxes.
Commenting on the results, Taxpayers’ Union
Spokesman James Ross said:
“Yet again, this poll
confirms that the election race is as close as it can
be.”
“The Government ought to be concerned with the
issues Labour now lead on. It will shock National’s election
strategists that more voters are picking Labour as more
trusted ‘not to put up your taxes’.”
SUMMARY
STATEMENT
The poll was conducted by Curia Market
Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random
poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the
overall adult population. It was conducted by phone
(landlines and mobile) and online between Sunday 01 February
and Tuesday 03 February 2026. It has a maximum margin
of error of +/- 3.1%.
NOTES:
Given some of the
incorrect commentary on this poll, please see the following
twitter thread for an explanation of our process: https://x.com/TaxpayersUnion/status/2029639533185356199?s=20
The
scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market
Research and commissioned by the New Zealand
Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being
released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer
Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David
Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers’ Union and previously
served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia
Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union –
Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 01 March to Tuesday
03 March 2026. The median response was collected on Monday
02 March 2026.
The target population is adults aged
18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to
vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in
New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are
contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online
panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to
participate, 700 by phone and 300 by online panel.
A
random selection of 10,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and
mobiles) and a random selection from the target population
from up to three global online panels (that comply with
ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a
landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is
asked to take part. Those who take part through an online
panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for
six months. Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the
response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very
unlikely to vote were excluded.
The poll was part of a
wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on
voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The
questions were asked in the order they are listed. The
results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult
population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this
sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for
a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level.
Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much
higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
This
poll should be formally referred to as the
“Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.
The
New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union is an independent and
membership-driven activist group, dedicated to being the
voice for Kiwi taxpayers in the corridors of power. Its
mission, lower taxes, less waste, more
accountability, is supported by 200,000 subscribed
members and
supporters.
