- Top six fossil fuel corporations expect Q2 profits
to nearly double Q1 levels. Annual profits for 2026 are set
to exceed the previous 21 months combined. - Emissions
from five fossil fuel corporations were enough to cause
about 1 in 4 heatwaves between 2000 and 2023, which would
have been virtually impossible without climate
change. - A tax on the richest oil and gas
corporations could raise up to $400 billion in its first
year, enough to cover annual climate adaptation costs in
low- and middle-income countries.
The world’s
six biggest fossil fuel corporations are expected to nearly
double their combined net income in the second quarter of
2026, jumping from $23 billion in the previous quarter to
$45 billion, reveals new Oxfam analysis ahead of their
earnings announcements. New data also finds that the
emissions of these corporations have significantly magnified
the frequency and severity of heatwaves this
century.
The projected full-year profits of BP,
Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies amount to
$147 billion, more than their combined profits over the
previous 21 months (Q2 2024 to Q4 2025). Among the biggest
winners, Chevron is expected to report that it has
quadrupled its profits to $1,200 a second in the last three
months, while ExxonMobil’s profits are expected to have
tripled to $1,800 a second.
Oil and gas corporations
share an outsized responsibility for the climate crisis. New
Oxfam analysis of academic data published in Nature finds
that the emissions from BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell and
TotalEnergies were sufficient to cause around 1 in 4
heatwaves reported globally between 2000 and 2023 –
heatwaves that would have been virtually impossible without
human-made climate change. Using S&P Capital Trucost
data, Oxfam estimates that Big Oil was responsible for $60
billion in environmental damage last year.
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The
findings come as record-breaking heatwaves scorch South
Asia, Europe and North America, killing tens of thousands of
people. Meanwhile, West African countries are struggling
with devastating monsoons and floods that have upended
thousands of lives and destroyed vital infrastructure across
the region.
Yet rather than scaling back fossil fuel
production and accelerating the transition to renewable
energy, the six largest fossil fuel corporations plan to
increase oil and gas production by 14 percent by 2030
compared to 2024 levels, equivalent to pumping an additional
2.5 million barrels of oil a day.
“Fossil fuel
corporations are making a killing, literally and
figuratively. As extreme heat, floods and storms devastate
communities across the world, the industry is preparing
another bonanza of profits. Families are paying the price
three times over: through destroyed homes and harvests,
through soaring energy prices, and through a cost-of-living
crisis worsened by dependence on fossil fuels. Big Oil’s
greed is incompatible with a livable planet and unless
governments rein it in, they will make a mockery of
international climate targets,” said Oxfam’s Climate
Policy Lead Mariana Paoli.
Oxfam estimates that a tax
on the profits of the largest fossil fuel corporations could
raise up to $400 billion globally in its first year, enough
to cover annual climate adaptation costs in the Global
South. An additional excess profits tax on all corporations
could generate up to $681 billion globally.
“While Big
Oil fuels extreme weather events, rich countries are
refusing to increase the public climate finance that poorer
countries urgently need to cope with the climate crisis,”
said Paoli. “Until governments make the richest polluters
pay, fossil fuel corporations will keep driving us deeper
into climate chaos. Taxing the richest polluters could help
close the gap in funding for climate adaptation and speed
the transition towards renewable energy. Fossil fuel
corporations must feel the heat, not us.”
Political
momentum for taxing the richest polluters is growing. Italy,
Germany, Spain, Portugal and Austria have called for a new
windfall tax on energy profits. In Australia, where Oxfam
research found that one in three coal, oil and gas
corporations are paying no corporate income tax, many
members of Parliament are speaking out in support of a 25
percent export tax on gas, with strong public
support.
Research in 60 countries found that 28
percent of them have implemented a temporary windfall tax on
excess profits from fossil fuel companies in recent years,
with a further 13 percent supportive. Just 12 percent are
explicitly against the measure.
Oxfam Aotearoa’s
Advocacy and Policy Lead, Nick Henry, said, “Fossil fuel
companies have a global responsibility for climate change.
The New Zealand Government should be holding these rich
polluters to account and making them pay the cost of their
climate damage.”
Notes
Oxfam’s research is
based on S&P Capital IQ’s consensus estimates compiled
from financial analysts’ forecasts. The six largest fossil
fuel corporations are due to publish their second-quarter
earnings over the coming week. The projected surge in
profits reflects the sharp rise in oil prices following the
unlawful US and Israel war against Iran.
Read
Oxfam’s comprehensive investigation ” Big Oil profits
expected to double as the world burns ”
(https://www.equals.ink/p/478ceaac-6a27-44a1-bf81-4dfd5173c64d?postPreview=free&updated=2026-07-16T13%3A29%3A51.583Z&audience=everyone&free_preview=false&freemail=true).
Get the latest insights, data and investigations on global
inequality through the Equals podcast and newsletter
(https://www.equals.ink).
Analysis of peer reviewed
data finds that, of the 213 heatwaves recorded between 2000
and 2023, 55 would have been virtually impossible without
human-induced climate change
(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09450-9). The
historical emissions of Chevron, BP, ExxonMobil, Shell, and
TotalEnergies were, on their own, enough to cross the
threshold that made nearly all those heatwaves over 10,000
times more likely (50 heatwaves for TotalEnergies, 51 for
the four others). This means that the emissions of any of
those five corporations were enough, on their own, to cause
around 1 in 4 of the heatwaves.
Countries in Europe
reported over 10,000 excess deaths during the extreme
heatwaves in June. Heatwaves are also killing tens of
thousands of people in India
(https://www.euronews.com/2026/06/10/heatwaves-are-killing-tens-of-thousands-in-india-officials-are-barely-counting-them).
Dozens of people drowned, hundreds had to be rescued and
thousands were displaced when floods struck the coasts of
west Africa last month
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/16/how-global-heating-supercharged-floods-west-africa-displacing-thousands).
Oxfam
estimates that an additional tax on the profits of 585 of
the world’s major oil, gas and coal corporations would
raise $400 billion
(https://www.oxfam.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Oxfam-Polluter-profit-tax-methodology-note_2.pdf).
An additional 50 percent tax on the excess profits of all
corporations other than fossil fuel energy corporations with
a revenue above $100 million would raise $681
billion.
According to the UNEP Adaptation Gap Report
2025
(https://wedocs.unep.org/items/b547996e-14ee-4f1c-a6d4-b811dd373ae9),
the estimated adaptation finance needs of low- and
middle-income countries range from $310 billion to $365
billion per year by 2035.
Read the details of
Oxfam’s model for a “rich polluter profit tax”
(https://www.oxfam.org/en/blogs/rich-polluter-profits-tax-could-raise-400-billion-and-help-phase-out-fossil-fuels).
Read
the letter from EU Economy and Finance ministers calling for
a windfall profit tax on energy corporations
(https://www.oxfam.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Letter.pdf).
Download
Oxfam Australia’s Freeloaders report
(https://www.oxfam.org.au/blog/freeloaders-how-gas-corporations-are-paying-little-tax/).
See
the country mapping
(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aocqBrvMKJJeF-F5hyKFnVWa2Pv8IHwH/edit?gid=308427329#gid=308427329)
of government support for fossil fuel
taxes.
