National’s Voters Are Walking. Here’s Where They’re Going

Craig
McCulloch Deputy Political Editor

Analysis:
Almost one in five people who voted National in 2023 now
back ACT or New Zealand First, according to a breakdown of
the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll.

But Labour is still
the biggest single beneficiary of National’s reduced
support.

The poll’s headline numbers – released on
Thursday – showed National’s overall vote falling to 24.8
percent and Labour on 30.6 percent.

Closer analysis
shows just 56.9 percent of those who said they voted
National in 2023 still back the party.

Labour has
picked up 14 percent of National’s previous
voters.

ACT takes 10.6 percent and New Zealand First
7.8 percent, giving National’s coalition partners a combined
18.4 percent of its 2023 voters.

The findings come as
National pushes back against a right-wing strategic voting
campaign calling for National supporters to give just their
electorate vote to National, and their party vote to ACT or
NZ First.

The strategy relies on National winning more
MPs in electorates than its party vote would normally allow,
thereby creating an overhang and boosting the coalition’s
combined numbers.

Former prime minister Sir John Key
has warned against the tactic, calling it “the opposite of
clever”. On Monday, he told Morning Report that
National needed to remain a “strong core” of any resulting
government.

The RNZ-Reid Research figures do not
establish whether voters have switched teams for tactical
reasons or who they intend to back with their electorate
vote.

National’s losses also extend well beyond its
coalition partners.

Roughly a quarter of National’s
2023 voters now favour a party outside the coalition, are
undecided or say they would not vote.

Alongside
Labour’s 14 percent, Opportunity attracts 4.9 percent of
National’s previous voters and the Greens take 3.6
percent.

The movement between National and Labour is
heavily in Labour’s favour, with just 3.3 percent of
Labour’s 2023 voters now backing National.

Labour also
retains more of its previous supporters, with 71.5 percent
of its 2023 voters still backing the party.

Its
biggest losses are to the Greens, which attract 9.9 percent
of Labour’s previous voters, followed by Opportunity on 5.6
percent and NZ First on 5.1 percent.

Reid Research
surveyed 1000 eligible voters online between 20-26 October,
with the results weighted to reflect the
population.

The full poll has a maximum margin of
error of 3.1 percentage points, with greater uncertainty for
the smaller groups of previous National and Labour
voters.

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