El Niño has been declared in the Pacific – and a
forecaster says there’s reason for concern.
An El
Niño event occurs when the ocean becomes warmer than usual,
affecting rainfall and wind patterns.
The Secretariat
of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP), which
is the region’s primary scientific organisation, says that
sea surface temperature readings and Southern Oscillation
Index values have met the thresholds for El
Niño.
This means that over the coming months,
countries in the Western Pacific are likely to experience
drier-than-usual conditions, increasing the risk of
drought.
Meanwhile, those countries in the Central and
Eastern Pacific can expect above-average
rainfall.
“While El Niño conditions are generally
associated with drier-than-normal weather and increased
drought risk in the Western Pacific, short-term heavy
rainfall events can still occur within this broader
pattern,” SPREP said in a statement.
“Even where such
events take place, monthly and seasonal rainfall totals may
remain below average overall.”
Earth Sciences New
Zealand chief forecaster Chris Brandolino said there is
reason to be concerned.
“All indications are that this
will be a very strong event to perhaps something we haven’t
seen before, and what that means, we’ll have to wait and
see,” he told RNZ Pacific.
“Impacts aren’t always
directly related to intensity, but certainly a very strong
El Niño does increase the odds for higher-end
impacts.”
Advertisement – scroll to continue reading
Brandolino said the expected intensity could
drag on beyond the usual winter months and past
September.
“It’s one thing to have a dry month or two,
but obviously it’s a different thing to have several
consecutive months of inadequate rainfall.
“Every El
Niño is different … we know the average outcome of El
Niño, but no El Niño is average.”
SPREP climate
science director Salesa Nihmei cautioned against mistaken
reporting on what an El Niño actually is.
“Past El
Niño transition phases have shown that short-term weather
events of this kind can create the potential for mixed
messaging,” he said.
“There is a risk that such events
may be misinterpreted in the media, affecting how the
broader El Niño outlook is understood and
communicated.”
The United Nations warned
of a looming El Niño event at the start of the month,
emerging between June and August.
The US National
Weather Service in Guam has
warned that the Northern Mariana Islands could see
between three to five additional typhoons and up to seven
named tropical cyclones before the end of the year due to
the El Niño event.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology
ahs also officially declared El Niño active, the ABC
reported on
Tuesday.
New Zealand’s public broadcaster, providing comprehensive NZ news and current affairs, specialist audio features and documentaries.
Radio New Zealand is a Crown entity established under the Radio New Zealand Act 1995. Radio New Zealand News are vital elements in our programming, providing impartial news and information to New Zealanders every day. Radio New Zealand (RNZ) provides listeners with exciting and independent radio programmes in accordance with the Radio New Zealand Charter.
