Sydney’s 1789 Smallpox Epidemic Came From The First Fleet And Killed Up To 220,000 Indigenous Australians: New Research

Corey
J. A. Bradshaw, Flinders
University; Lynette
Russell, Monash
University; Matthew
Cody Nitschke, Flinders
University; Sean
Ulm, James
Cook University, and Shane
Ingrey, UNSW
Sydney

We warn readers that the
content of this study is confronting and may be
distressing.

In April 1789, the first
smallpox epidemic among Aboriginal people in the Sydney
region began, just 16 months after Europeans arrived on the
First Fleet.

Little is known of the true scale of
the epidemic, and historians have sometimes argued
it was not caused by the newcomers.

In new
research published in Nature Human Behaviour, we used
modelling of smallpox transmission and the connections
between Indigenous societies to understand how it could have
spread.

The results strongly suggest the disease
did come from the British outpost. What’s more, it might
have spread thousands of kilometres north and west, lasting
decades and killing as many as 220,000 Aboriginal
people.

A destructive force throughout
history

Infectious disease has long been one of
history’s most destructive forces. The COVID pandemic,
which killed an
estimated 15 million people in 2020–2021, is only the
most recent entry in a list including the Black
Death, which killed up to half of Europe’s population
in the 14th century, and the “Spanish” influenza
of 1918 that was responsible for some 17 million
deaths.

One of the earliest recorded – and most
feared – diseases was the now-eradicated smallpox, caused
by the variola
virus.

Evidence of smallpox has been identified in
Egyptian
mummies dating to as early as 1500 BCE. In 18th century
Europe, an average 400,000
people died every year from smallpox. An estimated 300
million people died of the disease during the 20th
century, about double the total deaths from wars fought
during the same period.

For Indigenous peoples
around the world, smallpox was one of the
most devastating diseases introduced by Europeans. The
disease was a major driver of the catastrophe that killed
countless Native
Americans from Canada to Tierra del Fuego after the
arrival of Spanish and Portuguese in the 16th century.

Smallpox caused fever, severe illness, and high
death rates, especially in Indigenous populations with no
previous exposure. Survivors were left with severe scarring.

What caused the 1789 smallpox
epidemic?

A persistent narrative in Australia’s
colonial history is that the disease did not come from the
First Fleet. Instead, the argument goes, it was
introduced earlier by Makassan
traders in the far north of the country. Supporters of
this idea proposed that it just happened to make its way to
Sydney by the time the British established a colony
there.

This interpretation has gained some traction
because no sailors in the First Fleet were known to have
smallpox when they arrived. There were also some
anecdotal reports of smallpox survivors in the far north
shortly after the 1789 outbreak.

Modelling the
spread of the disease

Our research looked at how
the disease could realistically have spread across
Australia. Our model combined what we know about smallpox
transmission with how Indigenous people were connected
through regular exchange, trade, and long-distance movement.

Before colonial invasion, the movement of
Aboriginal people followed known paths – for water,
ceremony, food, trade, and family. The disease could only
travel where people could realistically walk, rest, and
recover.

Our reconstruction shows there was no
plausible pathway for the disease to travel from northern
Australia to Sydney in time to cause the 1789 outbreak. The
evidence strongly supports a Sydney origin linked to the
British colony.

The spread of the disease followed
coastlines and major rivers. But it did not reach all of
Australia.

Exactly how the outbreak started is
still unclear. The colonists had brought “variola
matter” with them – biological samples infected with
the virus responsible for smallpox – to be used if needed
for inoculation. It is possible this material could have
been accidentally or intentionally released.

Another myth our model deflated is the notion
that the disease did not extend much beyond the Sydney
region. In fact, the disease could have persisted in the
Indigenous population for up to 21
years. It might also have spread as far north as
Townsville and as far west as Adelaide.

Even more
striking was the estimated death toll. Using recent
reconstructions of the Indigenous Australian population
at the time of European invasion, our model suggests the
epidemic could have killed as many as
220,000 Aboriginal people.

An impact that
lasted generations

This new evidence outlines the
catastrophic impact of smallpox on Indigenous communities,
including enduring effects passed down through generations.

Families, knowledge systems, and ways of caring
for Country were badly damaged, and the effects are still
felt today. Elders, children, and pregnant women were
especially vulnerable, meaning knowledge, language, and
culture suffered deep harm alongside population
decline.

The modelling does not speak over Aboriginal
knowledge, memory, or oral history.

Aboriginal
histories describe Dharawal
people returning to Sydney Harbour within weeks of the
outbreak’s peak. Despite its enormous demographic and
cultural toll, communities regrouped and over the next
century, continued living in and around the harbour. They
continued cultural practices, spoke their language, and
applied their knowledge systems until remaining descendants
were forcibly relocated in the 1880s.

Although it
is important for Australians to come to terms with the
traumatic legacy of smallpox to inform the national process
of healing, we must acknowledge that Indigenous connections
to Country were disrupted, but never
broken.

If you are, or someone you know
is, feeling worried or no good, we encourage you to connect
with 13YARN on 13 92 76 (24 hours / 7 days) and talk with an
Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander Crisis
Supporter.

The authors acknowledge
research collaborators Kirsty Beller (Gujaga Foundation),
Alan Williams (EMM Consulting), Billy Griffiths (Deakin
University), Nicholas Pitt (University of New South Wales),
Michael Bird (James Cook University), Syeda Fatima
(University of Canberra), Ian McNiven (Monash University),
Frédérik Saltré (University of Technology
Sydney/Australian Museum), Alison Bashford (University of
New South Wales), and Chris Wilson (University of Tasmania).
We acknowledge the sovereign Traditional Owners and
custodians (First Nations) of the unceded lands, seas and
skies where we live and work, including Kaurna in
Tarndanya/Adelaide, Dharawal/Sydney, Dharawal in
Kamay/Botany Bay, Kulin Nation in Naarm/Melbourne,
Yirrganydji and Gimuy Walubara Yidinji in Gimuy/Cairns,
Dharawal in Woolungah/Wollongong, Ngarrindjeri of
Murrundi/lower Murray River, Kurangk/Coorong, and eastern
Fleurieu Peninsula, Palawa in Nipaluna/Hobart,
lutruwitra/Tasmania, and Peramangk in Bukatila/Mount Lofty
Ranges. We also recognise the deep historical and cultural
harm our truth-telling exposes, and we commiserate with all
First Nations peoples of Australia.

Corey
J. A. Bradshaw, Matthew Flinders Professor of Global
Ecology and Node Leader in the ARC Centre of Excellence for
Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, Flinders
University; Lynette
Russell, Sir John Monash Distinguished Professor, Monash
University. Deputy Director ARC Centre of Excellence for
Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, Monash
University; Matthew
Cody Nitschke, Research Associate, ARC Centre of
Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and
Futures, Flinders
University; Sean
Ulm, Director, ARC Centre of Excellence for Indigenous
and Environmental Histories and Futures, James
Cook University, and Shane
Ingrey, Postdoctoral research fellow, ARC Centre of
Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and
Futures (CIEHF), UNSW
Sydney

This article is
republished from The
Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the
original
article.