Mark
Rabago
RNZ Pacific CNMI correspondent
Super
Typhoon Bavi intensified into a category 5 cyclone early
Saturday and is expected to remain an extremely dangerous
storm as it approaches the Northern Mariana Islands, with
forecasters warning residents to complete preparations ahead
of deteriorating conditions beginning Sunday.
The
latest bulletin on 4 July, from the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center, highlighted by the National Weather Service Guam,
placed Bavi over 700km east-southeast of Saipan with maximum
sustained winds of over 257kmph while moving west at about
16kmph.
The storm is forecast to strengthen further to
around 281kmph on Sunday before beginning a gradual
weakening trend, though it is still expected to pass through
the Marianas as a category 5 super typhoon.
The
official forecast track has shifted slightly south since
Friday but continues to show the centre passing between Rota
and Tinian, now closer to Rota. A typhoon watch remains in
effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan, while tropical
storm-force winds are expected to begin affecting the
islands sometime Sunday afternoon or evening.
In an
interview with Marianas Press shortly after the 7am local
time advisory, National Weather Service Guam Warning
Coordination Meteorologist Landon Aydlett said Bavi
underwent “explosive rapid intensification” overnight and
remains on track toward the Marianas.
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He said forecast
confidence has increased compared with Super Typhoon Sinlaku
because both traditional physics-based and artificial
intelligence forecast models are tightly clustered around a
path between Guam and Saipan.
Aydlett urged residents
not to focus on small changes in the forecast
track.
“All folks in the Marianas should be
considering the likelihood of the center of the typhoon
passing over your island,” he said.
“Do not take a
rosier outlook that it could sway north [or] that could sway
south from your island.”
He advised residents to seek
shelter in reinforced concrete buildings and complete
preparations no later than Sunday morning, warning that
everyone in the Marianas should prepare for at least
tropical storm conditions, with the possibility of a direct
strike by a category 5 system.
Heavy rainfall and
flash flooding are also expected, although Aydlett said Bavi
is forecast to move faster than Sinlaku, reducing the
likelihood of a prolonged multi-day rain event. Even so,
torrential rain, damaging winds and dangerous surf remain
major hazards as the storm approaches.
Earlier
Saturday, before the 7am advisory upgraded Bavi to a super
typhoon, Aydlett wrote on social media that the storm would
“soon be a Super Typhoon” and warned that any delay or
acceleration in its expected turn toward the west-northwest
could shift the track closer to either Guam and Rota or
Tinian and Saipan.
He stressed that every island in
the Marianas remains at risk and urged residents to use the
holiday to finish storm
preparations.
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