Māori are turning to the Greens for their
party vote with a new poll revealing a change described by
commentators as “massive”.
“This is huge – it’s like
sitting in Taupō when an earthquake goes off,” says former
MP Tau Henare.
Veteran journalist Tina Wickliffe says
the result is “massive” and like nothing she has seen before
amongst Māori voters.
“It’s because I think [the
Greens] have come out swinging right from the get go,” she
says.
“They’ve been relentless about the cost of
living crisis that we are in, and we cannot underestimate
how acute it is.”
A Mata-Horizon poll shows growing
support for the Greens amongst Māori voters enrolled on
both the Māori and general rolls.
Results are
revealed in a special episode of Mata
Reports.
The impact is most evident in the Māori
roll where the Green Party came out on top when participants
were asked who they intended casting their party vote for in
the 7 November election.
Twenty-eight percent opted
for the Greens, ahead of Labour on 27%, Te Pāti Māori
(16%), and Opportunity (6%). National, NZ First, ACT, and Te
Tai Tokerau Party were all below 5%.
Nine percent said
they were undecided, and another 3% said they wouldn’t vote.
Among Māori on the general roll, Labour was preferred by
38% and the Greens by 17%.
National was on 11%, NZ
First 10% and Opportunity 6%. Te Pāti Māori was on 2%,
behind ACT on 4%. Undecideds were at 8% and 3% said they
wouldn’t vote.
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Even though the Greens trailed Labour
amongst general roll Māori voters, the poll revealed the
Greens had seen the biggest shift since the last
election.
Green Party support increased 17% among
Māori roll voters and 7% among those on the general roll.
Labour was steady, up 1% in the Māori roll and 2% in the
general roll.
The result will be another boost to the
Greens, coming after it climbed to its highest level ever
recorded in the recent 1News Verian poll, 16%.
The
party’s strong showing in the Mata Horizon poll was
particularly evident in electorates such as Waiariki where
candidate Tania Waikato has been prominent.
Rangatahi
leader Maringi James said Waikato’s campaign would be
playing a part, but so too would be the impact of strategic
voting, in particular Te Pāti Māori’s “one-tick” push,
encouraging support for the electorate vote
only.
“Waiariki has always been a stronghold of Te
Pāti Māori, and I think our messaging about [strategic
voting] has been pretty clear. Knowing that we’re allowed to
vote for another party – I think that message is definitely
coming through,” says James.
She wasn’t surprised that
the Greens were benefiting.
“I think the policies
align and even just not with Tania Waikato, but the lineup
of Māori that they have, nine out of their top 20 being
Māori. I think that they’re starting to reflect us a little
bit better.”
Public Service Association Te Kaihautū
Māori Jack Tautokai McDonald says the poll reflects
strategic voting, but also that Te Pāti Māori has a lot of
work to do to win back people’s trust.
“Voters are
disaffected by the Māori party given all the raruraru over
the last few years,” says McDonald.
The poll was also
a wake-up call for Labour.
“Labour needs to come to
the table with some actual bold, transformative policies,”
says McDonald.
“People are sick and tired of the
status quo. We’ve had close to 10 years of a cost of living
crisis and people are really struggling just to make ends
meet. And so if Labour doesn’t actually recognise that and
front up with some policies that are going to put money in
people’s back pockets, then they’re going to
struggle.”
The extent of the cost of living crisis was
evident in another result from the Mata Horizon
survey.
Poll participants were asked if they’d had to
borrow money or use buy now pay later services to purchase
essential items such as groceries, power, rent, mortgage
payments or petrol.
More than a third said
yes.
Asked if they could pay an unexpected $500
expense without seeking help or borrowing, almost 40% said
definitely not or probably not.
Wickliffe says those
results show why the Greens are getting
cut-through.
“With their policies, people can imagine
them making an immediate impact in their life. [This] poll
showed us that cost of living is worse than we
thought.”
Henare noted that parties on the centre
right had not done well, which did not surprise him or the
other commentators.
He was interested, though, in the
position of Opportunity and predicted they would “have their
hand on the tiller” after the election, sitting in a
king-maker position.
Wickliffe says Māori voters may
be reacting to Opportunity’s citizen’s income policy and its
superannuation proposals.
“Let’s be blunt here:
nevermind the ‘butter chicken’ tsunami, there’s going to be
a tsunami of Pākehā pensioners. Who’s gonna pay for that?
It’s going to be Gen Z Māori, because disproportionately we
don’t live as long. So what [Opportunity] is offering could
be drawing some interest.”
With more than a month
until the election, though, Henare had a warning for all
parties.
“There’s still plenty of time for things to
run off the rails.”
This episode was recorded prior to
the passing of The Right Honourable Adrian Rurawhe. E te
rangatira Adrian, ko te aunga o te moe ki a
koe.
The poll had 1089 Māori respondents aged 18
plus, surveyed between September 8- 18. The sample was
weighted on age, gender, region and 2023 voting and
electorate roll. The overall margin of error was ±3%. Made
with the help of Te Māngai Pāho & NZ on
Air
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