Phil
Pennington, Reporter
MPs have been told
the very low rate of survival estimated if a landslide
tsunami hits Milford Sound remains the case but the chase is
on to improve understanding of the risks.
The National
Emergency Management Agency, NEMA, told a scrutiny hearing
at parliament on Wednesday morning it was a big risk and it
was getting new research done.
Chief executive Dave
Gawn said an estimate made in 2024 has not budged in part
because it is hard to find safe zones for up to 4000
visitors at any one time in the narrow sound, should a big
landslide set off a tsunami.
“That scientific evidence
that came out that said, actually, as we understand it now,
that’s probably only about four to five percent survival
rate of that is real concern and that’s why we’re really
chasing this hard,” Gawn told MPs.
NEMA was about to
fund follow-up, more detailed research over the next two
years “to understand in far greater granularity … than we
do at the moment”.
It took time to understand how the
waves would behave and impact the shore.
“It is, I
think, one of our biggest risks.”
The research was
with Earth Sciences NZ, Southland tourism and the Department
of Conservation.
Also, they had put up alert boards
such as at Homer Tunnel and other tourist
education.
“We’re certainly not just sitting on our
hands.”
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But asked if that work had upped the
survivability estimate, Gawn said, “No”.
“The reality
is if you’ve got that many people and the lack of egress
routes from the danger zones in terms of being able to get
up high in something that is very, very channelled, is of
real concern.”
Gawn had been asked for any update on
the 2024
research that said 3500 could die.
About 40
percent of the base of Milford Sound is covered in landslide
deposits. A quake in the fiord had a 44 percent chance of
triggering another landslide, the 2024 research
said.
Gawn said what the upcoming research would mean
for how to manage the risk was the next stage.
NZ
First MP Andy Foster said overnight accommodation at Milford
seemed to present a real risk and suggested it might be a
case for testing the notion of “what to put where” and not
intensifying the risk with by building any more, like
councils faced in flood zones.
Gawn said it was
“absolutely critical” not to intensify the
risk.
However, Emergency Management and Recovery
Minister Mark Mitchell said the government did not want to
over-manage
risk.
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