Whakaata Māori-Curia Poll Reveals Major Shift In Te Tai Tonga Race

Incumbent
MP Tākuta Ferris could lose his electorate seat of Te Tai
Tonga, with a new Whakaata Māori-Curia poll showing him
trailing behind every other candidate in the country’s
largest electorate at 15 percent support, behind Labour’s
Mananui Ramsden with 30 percent, Te Pāti Māori candidate
Lisa Marie Murch with 17 percent, and Green Party candidate
Lisa Te Morenga with 16 percent.

All four candidates
will go head-to-head in a live debate on Tuesday night at
7pm on the Te Ao Māori News Facebook page, Te Ao Māori
News YouTube page, Whakaata Māori, and MĀORI+, moderated
by Julian Wilcox and Maiki Sherman.

The exclusive poll
results were commissioned by Whakaata Māori as part of its
Whakatau 2026 election coverage series.

The survey was
conducted from September 14 to September 24 by Curia Market
Research, which also polls for the National Party and the
New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union.

The poll surveyed 500
Māori voters aged 18 and older in Te Tai Tonga, including
420 by phone and 80 through an online panel. The margin of
error is plus or minus 4.5 percent with a 95% percent
confidence level.

Returned support for Labour as
Ferris struggles

The poll indicates that Te Tai Tonga
could swing back to Labour if voters deliver a 7 November
election result close to their preferences recorded during
the survey period.

In modern times, the Māori
electorate, covering Te Waipounamu, Rakiura, Wharekauri, and
parts of Te Ika-a-Māui, including Te Whanganui-a-Tara, has
most often been held by Labour MPs from the Tirikatene
dynasty for 72 years, with only brief periods of
representation by New Zealand First and Te Pāti Māori
MPs.

However, Tākuta Ferris, who defeated
long-serving MP Rino Tirikatene in the 2023 election, is
running as an independent following a dispute within Te
Pāti Māori that led to his departure from the
party.

Candidate support and approval

The poll
produced mixed views on Ferris:

Approval
Ratings: Despite low voting preference, Ferris
received positive net approval: 29 percent said he had done
a good job and 11 percent said he had done a poor job,
giving a net rating of +18 percentage
points.

Demographics: Voters aged
18-39 were significantly more likely to rate Ferris as good
(37 percent) compared with those aged 60 and older (15
percent). Conversely, voters over 60 were more likely to
rate him as poor (24 percent) compared with younger
demographics (8 percent).

Gender & Age
Splits: Wāhine were more likely than tāne to
support Green candidate Lisa Te Morenga (21 percent vs 10
percent). Her support was highest among those aged 18-39 (24
percent) compared with older age brackets.

When asked
how important it is for an electorate MP to stand up to
their party, 3 percent rated it very important, 43 percent
somewhat important, 14 percent not that important, and 3
percent not at all important.

Party vote
preferences

The poll showed Labour leading party vote
preferences at 28 percent, followed by the Greens (14
percent), Te Pāti Māori (11 percent), New Zealand First (6
percent), National (6 percent), Opportunity (4 percent), and
Free Palestine (4 percent), with 10 percent of voters
remaining undecided.

The data also highlights a
generational divide, showing that Labour support was lower
among 18-39-year-olds (16 percent) than among
40-59-year-olds (42 percent) and those aged 60 and older
(37percent).

Te Tai Tonga voters were asked to rate
their highest priorities for improving Māori
outcomes.

Honouring Te Tiriti o Waitangi ranked
highest at 30 percent, followed by reducing poverty and
homelessness (24 percent), improving health and education
outcomes (20 percent), mental health and addiction support
(13 percent), and addressing Māori unemployment (10
percent).

*Curia is a long-running and established
pollster in New Zealand. In 2024 it resigned its membership
from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) industry
body. The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research for
the Taxpayers’
Union.

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