22 September 2026
- 56% of surveyed economists
expect a stable or improving outlook in the year ahead, a
sharp improvement from May, when 89% expected conditions to
weaken. - 69% say fiscal support drove the global
economy’s resilience since 2020, but only 28% expect it to
play the same role in the year ahead. - 97% expect AI
adoption to rise, but 79% foresee data-centre expansion
facing significant backlash, with 61% not expecting
significant global job creation. - Household costs are
set to rise, led by food (88%), electricity (83%) and
transport (77%), while real incomes stagnate or fall in most
regions. - Read the Chief Economists’ Outlook here.
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The global
economy is stabilizing, but the fiscal support that
cushioned successive shocks since 2020 is unlikely to play
the same role in the year ahead, according to the World
Economic Forum’s Chief
Economists’ Outlook, published
today.
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A majority (56%) of chief economists surveyed
expect the global outlook to remain stable or improve, a
sharp improvement from May, when 89% expected conditions to
weaken. The improvement comes with limited confidence that
the stabilization will hold. Nearly all respondents (97%)
name geopolitical conflicts as a likely source of
uncertainty over the next year, 58% expect asset-price
corrections, and only one-quarter expect the global economy
to become more resilient.
“Chief Economists expect
the global economy to stabilize, but uncertainty remains
high with geopolitical volatility, potential asset-price
corrections, greater scrutiny of AI investment and
persistent cost-of-living pressures,” said Attilio Di
Battista, Head of Economic Growth and Transformation at the
World Economic Forum. “Government support played a
critical role in navigating successive crises, but fiscal
capacity is likely to be more constrained going forward. The
priority now is to strengthen the foundations of resilience
before the next shock arrives.”
Past resilience
rested on fiscal support that is unlikely to
return
Since 2020, fiscal support has been the most
significant source of resilience for the global economy,
cited by 69% of surveyed economists. Only 28% expect it to
play that role over the next 12 months. Instead, future
resilience is expected to depend increasingly on flexible
supply chains, technological innovation and energy-market
adaptation, with the United States and China seen as best
placed to withstand shocks.
AI optimism holds, but
the data-centre build-out faces backlash
Over the
next 12 months, 97% of respondents anticipate artificial
intelligence (AI) adoption to increase and 69% expect the
technology to unlock meaningful productivity gains. Around
eight in 10 (78%) expect data-centre investment to drive a
significant share of global growth, but 79% expect the
expansion to face significant pushback from local
communities.
At the same time, 61% do not expect
data-centre investment to drive a significant share of
global job creation, and majorities expect the expansion to
raise electricity (78%) and water (58%) prices.
The AI
race between China and the United States is expected to
narrow, with 69% expecting Chinese large language models to
catch up to their US counterparts in the next 12
months.
Fragmentation and divergence expected to
increase
Seventy-seven percent of surveyed economists
expect geoeconomic fragmentation to rise over the next year,
with 55% anticipating tariff increases in the United States
and 43% in Europe. Trade and investment will continue to
adapt: two-thirds expect global trade volumes to rise, and
83% expect Chinese exports to markets outside the United
States to increase.
The United States is expected to
continue being the most favourable business environment for
multinational companies, followed by South-East Asia and
Europe, which both rose by one position. India has fallen to
fourth place; China remains fifth.
Growth prospects
have strengthened across most regions but remain uneven.
India, South-East Asia, Central Asia and the United States
receive the strongest assessments. China’s outlook has
weakened, with about one in three economists expecting weak
growth. Europe has improved modestly but remains the weakest
region, with 61% expecting weak or very weak growth. Around
one in three economists expect unemployment to increase in
the United States, China and Europe, while monetary policy
is expected to diverge. Tighter settings are expected in
Japan (70% of surveyed economists), the euro area (53%) and
the United States (42%), while 49% anticipate looser
policies in China.
Cost of living expected to
increase and erode real incomes in many
regions
Respondents anticipate increases in costs of
living, led by food (88% of respondents), electricity (83%)
and transport (77%). Most surveyed economists expect real
incomes to decrease or stagnate across most regions, apart
from South-East Asia and India, where over 60% of
respondents anticipate increases. Governments are expected
to favour broad, visible responses: tax reductions on
essential goods (60%), consumption subsidies (54%) and price
caps (50%) are viewed as most likely, while only 36% expect
tax reductions for low-income households and 26% expect
targeted cash transfers.
About the Chief
Economists’ Outlook
The report builds on extensive
consultations and surveys with chief economists from the
public and private sectors, organized by the World Economic
Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society. The report
supports the WEF’s Future of Growth Initiative, a space
for exchange and collaboration to enable greater
competitiveness and economic transformation. The survey
featured in this edition was conducted from 4 to 20 August
2026.
About the Sustainable Development Impact
Meetings 2026
The Sustainable Development Impact
Meetings 2026 (SDIM26) will take place in New York, USA, on
21-24 September and bring together senior leaders from
across sectors and regions to advance solutions to shared
opportunities and challenges, with a particular focus on
long-term impact and building momentum before the World
Economic Forum Annual Meeting
2027.
