13 June 2026 – New Zealand is
sleepwalking into an energy crisis, and the Government’s
proposed solution will cost every household and business in
the country dearly for decades to come, warns the New
Zealand Outdoors & Freedom Party (NZOFP).
For
years, New Zealand relied on abundant, low-cost domestic
natural gas to stabilise the electricity grid, support
industry, and keep winter power prices under control. That
era is ending far faster than most New Zealanders
realise.
Domestic gas production has collapsed. In
2024, total gas supply fell to roughly 116 petajoules (PJ),
down from around 180 PJ just years earlier. This year, in
2026, projections show supply plummeting to just 98 PJ. The
Maui field, once the backbone of New Zealand’s entire energy
system, is in terminal decline. MBIE’s own reserves data
confirms that multiple major fields are forecast to wind
down by the mid-2030s. This is a structural, irreversible
depletion, not a temporary dip.
Gas is the backbone of
winter electricity security, responsible for generating up
to 55% of our electricity during peak times when hydro lakes
are low and wind drops. Without it, the country faces
systemic shortages. That is why the Government is now
pursuing a billion-dollar LNG import terminal infrastructure
project.
However, imported LNG is highly volatile.
Recent Asian spot prices translate to roughly $29
per gigajoule (GJ) in New Zealand dollars. Domestic
Maui gas, by contrast, has historically traded at
around $8–$10 per GJ. Applying LNG
pricing to the same volume of gas currently used for
electricity generation causes the annual fuel bill to jump
from approximately $500 million to $1.6
billion.
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NZOFP Energy Spokesman
Lester Bryant says: “It represents the same
electricity output for triple the fuel cost, every single
year. These costs will flow directly into wholesale
electricity prices. The choice being handed to Kiwis is
between much higher power prices or blackouts. Neither is
acceptable.”
“What makes this worse is that the
proposed terminal isn’t even sized to replace total
domestic gas supply. It is an emergency stopgap
masquerading as a strategy. A terminal large enough
to fully replace domestic production would require billions
more in capital investment, permanently locking in tripled
electricity prices as a core feature of the New Zealand
economy.”
Domestic gas remaining must be treated
as a precious, irreplaceable resource, prioritized strictly
for hospitals, universities, essential industrial processes,
and critical infrastructure.
“The Government has
been warned repeatedly by MBIE, the Gas Industry Group, and
independent analysts that domestic supply is declining
faster than forecast,” says Mr. Bryant. “Dressing up an
expensive stopgap as a solution in an election year, while
the bill lands on every household power invoice for the next
30 years, is a betrayal of New Zealand consumers. Kiwis
deserve a frank, honest conversation about the real costs
and trade-offs of our energy
future.”
