Law Changes Expected To Boost Prison Population Over Next Decade

Lauren
Crimp, Political Reporter

The prison
population is expected to grow by more than a third in the
next decade.

The annual Ministry of Justice
projections also expect the number of people on remand –
that is, behind bars but awaiting trial or sentencing –
would leap 48 percent.

The report said there would be
15,200 prisoners in June 2036 – a 35 percent increase from
11,240 in February this year.

The numbers were in line
with last
year’s projections.

The report also said there
would be fewer cases before the court, but more serious
cases and longer sentences, due to government policy
changes.

Remand population on the
rise

Currently, 4677 people in prison were on remand
– 41 percent of the prison population. That was projected to
reach 6900 by 2036, or 45 percent.

The rate of
increase had slowed over the past year, but people were
still spending a long time on remand, said Ministry of
Justice sector insights general manager Rebecca
Parish.

“Timely access to justice continues to be a
priority, with initiatives helping to stabilise remand times
in the short-term.”

Time spent in remand had
stabilised over the last year, but that was “conservatively”
projected to increase from 91 days to 110 days over the next
decade, the report said.

The number of women entering
remand was also on the rise, projected to increase 82
percent.

Fewer total court cases, more serious
cases

While the overall number of cases before court
was expected to decrease by 4 percent in the next decade,
there would be a 5 percent increase in more serious cases,
the report said.

“This is driven by new policy and
increased prosecution associated with higher frontline
police numbers,” the report said.

“At the same time,
additional frontline police visibility may act as a
deterrent for lower-level… offending.”

Parish said
the numbers reflected the impact of recent law changes,
including the
Sentencing (Reform) Amendment Act and the
Crimes Amendment Bill.

Under the Sentencing
(Reform) Amendment Act, more people would be sent to prison,
and for longer terms, she said.

The annual projections
were vital for informing future resourcing and capacity
planning across the justice sector, Parish
said.

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