New analysis by 350.org shows that
elevated oil prices have already imposed an estimated
$45m (approx. $100m FJD) on Fiji since the
start of the Iran war and will cost up to over $100m
(approx. $220m FJD) in total by the end of the year
in case of continued escalation. Even in case of a swift
normalization of the Strait of Hormuz and the region –
recent weeks have seen renewed escalation and recorded
concomitant rising prices – higher oil prices would cost the
Fijian people and businesses over $65m ($144m FJD)
by the end of the year.
350.org’s analysis is based on
oil and gas pricing scenarios of the International Monetary
Fund’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook, Fijian consumption
data and observed price averages since the start of the Iran
war and Hormuz crisis.
350.org’s estimates do not yet
account for wider knock-on effects, including rising
fertiliser and food costs, lower economic output and
employment, or rising inflation driven by fossil fuel price
volatility. As a result, the true economic damage is likely
to be significantly greater than the direct losses from
higher oil and gas prices alone.
This analysis lands
as five of the world’s biggest oil and gas companies
amassed a cumulative $48 billion in profits this quarter’s
earnings season (TotalEnergies – $6 billion; Shell – $9.8
billion; Chevron – $12.1 billion; ExxonMobil – 14.5; BP –
$5.7 billion), with most of them posting some of their
highest profits since 2022.
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Fenton
Lutunatabua, 350.org
Pacific and Caribbean Program Lead
says,
“It is shocking to see these
obscene profit margins in global oil and gas companies,
while people in Fiji are having to dig deeper into their
pockets to pay for a crisis not of their making. It has
never been clearer that we need to break free of our
reliance on imported fuel and invest in our own renewable
energy independence.
Across the Pacific, our
people are being choked by climate disasters and rising
costs of living. The Just Transition to renewable energy
needs to happen swiftly, and I think the people that are
profiting off of our struggle, the world’s highest earners
and highest polluters, should be required to pay for their
fair share of it.”
Notes:
350.org’s
analysis is based on oil and gas pricing scenarios of the
International Monetary Fund’s April 2026 World Economic
Outlook as well as pricing outlook of
Goldman Sachs and consumption data of Fiji as well as
reduced demand due to higher prices and rationing
measures.
The analysis takes a deliberately
conservative approach in estimating total losses due to
higher prices.
It does not include wider knock-on
effects such as higher food and fertiliser costs, broader
inflation, or reduced economic output.
It compares
rising prices against the price level in the week before the
Iran war, e.g. Brent crude at USD 72 per barrel, a price
that was already above levels seen in the preceding weeks
and months of 2026 and likely already reflected market fears
of disruption in the Middle East. This means the true
economic impact is plausibly even higher.
Reduced
demand resulting from higher prices and rationing is already
accounted for.
Figures may vary slightly due to
rounding, including converting units such as cubic meters
into energy (EJ and
MWh)
