The world is on track to cross the 1.5°C global warming
threshold, likely within the next few years, according to a
major
new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report released
today. Limiting
Overshoot finds that even the most optimistic scenario
now points to a peak temperature rise of 1.8°C, with most
other projections higher still. It concludes that an
“overshoot, peak and decline” pathway can still bring the
world back below 1.5°C if governments act immediately on
emissions, methane and the fossil fuel phase-out.
As
Pacific leaders deliberate in the 55th Pacific Islands Forum
in Palau, regional security, climate resilience and
development will be top of the agenda. The new UNEP
Overshoot report outlines how any time spent above the
1.5°C threshold threatens all three areas for Small Island
Developing States (SIDS), alongside food security, health,
economic and ecosystem collapse. Strong political will,
effective policies, inclusive governance and finance are all
important enabling conditions to reduce peak temperatures
and bring the world back below 1.5°C.
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Fenton
Lutunatabua, 350.org
Pacific and Caribbean Program Manager
said:
“We absolutely have to claw back
every fraction of a degree possible. Just because overshoot
is deemed inevitable, that doesn’t mean we stop fighting to
limit it to as short an overshoot as possible. It is still
within our grasp to limit how high temperatures rise and how
long they stay above 1.5°C, and every day above 1.5°C is
another coastline swallowed, another plantation flooded,
another coral reef lost.
“We have the stark
science outlining our situation, and we have the solutions,
what we need is the political will to see them through.
While our leaders are in Palau, all eyes are on one of the
world’s largest fossil fuel exporters, Australia, and how
they act on this urgent warning. The climate crisis is here
and any delay in mitigation, in phasing out coal, oil and
gas, will only make our adaptation pressures harder and more
expensive to bear.”
Jacynta Fa’amau,
350.org
Pacific Campaigner said:
“We are at this
point, not by accident, but because of the actions of the
fossil fuel industry and the governments that enable them.
Australia sits in the Pacific Forum Leaders Meeting this
week with the mantle of COP31 President of Negotiations, but
also the shame of being one of the world’s largest fossil
fuel exporters. The news that we are likely to exceed 1.5°C
in the next few years should not be taken lightly and
absolutely needs to be at the centre of Australia’s climate
strategy. There is no road back to 1.5° C that includes
coal, oil and gas expansion and every year of high emissions
makes limiting overshoot more difficult.
The
impacts won’t only be felt in the Pacific, it will be felt
by the agriculture industry, coastal cities and vulnerable
communities in Australia and beyond. At the same time,
finance for adaptation has never been more crucial. We
aren’t yet aware of the multiplying, non-linear effects that
a world beyond 1.5°C brings, but we do know that Pacific
people will be on the frontlines of these effects and
deserve to be prepared.”
UNEP warns that
vulnerable communities are already facing the fallout of
rising global temperatures, and that adaptation and
mitigation need to happen together to respond to changing
conditions. 350.org
Pacific maintains that this overshoot is harmful
beyond lines on a graph. It is not an argument for
resignation but for urgency, and calls for an immediate
phase out of fossil fuels, accessible and adequate climate
finance from those historically responsible for climate
harm, and investment in renewable energy solutions that are
adaptive and
equitable.
