Wellington (Thursday, 20 August 2026)
– At its campaign launch in Gisborne on Sunday,
Te Pāti Māori told its supporters to split their votes:
candidate votes for the party, party votes for its allies on
the left. A new research note by The New Zealand Initiative
warns this call could set off a chain of tactical voting
that kills MMP.
In Unravelling MMP: How the 2026
election could break the voting system from two sides,
Executive Director Dr Oliver Hartwich shows how the strategy
plays on the overhang rule. Te Pāti Māori wins its seats
through the Māori electorates, so its party votes can be
given away. On current polling, the play is worth three or
four extra seats for the left bloc.
“Our note is a
plea to Te Pāti Māori to reconsider,” Hartwich said.
“Once one party games the voting system in the open,
restraint becomes a handicap for everyone else.”
The
greater danger lies in the response it invites. National is
on track to win more electorates than its party vote covers.
That would leave close to 900,000 National party votes with
no effect on the result.
The note models what happens
if centre-right voters respond in kind. If one National
party vote in nine moved to a coalition partner, the
Government would win a majority that current polling denies
it. At one in four, the coalition would hold 69 seats in a
Parliament of 132, even though the opposition parties won
more votes between them.
“That is the wrong-winner
election MMP was introduced to prevent,” Hartwich said.
“It would return inside the very system built to banish
it, and not one law would be broken. That is the problem:
the law itself invites it.”
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Christopher Luxon has
promised a referendum on MMP if he is re-elected. An
election won by gaming the system would write the case for
abolition better than any campaign could.
The note
calls on the next Parliament to fix the rules before any
referendum: balance out overhang seats so that gaming no
longer pays.
“An electoral system that punishes
sincere voting and rewards clever voting will not stay
legitimate for long,” Hartwich said.
The research
note Unravelling MMP: How the 2026 election could break
the voting system from two sides by Executive Director
Dr Oliver Hartwich is available from The New Zealand
Initiative website.
About The New Zealand
Initiative
The New Zealand Initiative is an
evidence-based think tank and research institute
contributing to public policy discussion.
Supported by
the nation’s leading visionaries, business leaders and
political thinkers, we are committed to making New Zealand a
better country for all its citizens with a world-class
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