Grant
Duncan, University
of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
New
Zealand’s provisional election results have created
considerable uncertainty, and may feel frustrating for many
voters. But fortunately there are guidelines for the parties
and for the process of government during this limbo
period.
Final results – which will include a
large number of special votes – won’t be known until
November 27, and it will take some weeks of negotiations
between the parties before any viable coalition agreement
can be made.
The caretaker
convention and the guidance of the Cabinet
Manual – the “authoritative guide to central
government decision making” – now come into
play.
How we got here
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As of
today, neither the left nor right is giving any ground.
Opposition leader, Labour’s Chris Hipkins, did not concede
defeat on election night. On the other hand, he was in no
position to claim a victory either.
Incumbent prime
minister, National’s Christopher
Luxon, said, “National is once again the largest party
in parliament and we have a pathway to forming the next
government.” He too is in no position to say much
more.
Thanks to a parliamentary overhang
caused by widespread vote splitting, National has 3,650
fewer votes than Labour. But National provisionally holds 42
seats to Labour’s 36. That is clearly not proportional in
the way the mixed member proportional system (MMP)
is designed to work.
However, the party with the
most seats doesn’t necessarily form the next government,
as we saw in 2017 when Jacinda Ardern’s Labour got over
the line with the help of New Zealand First.
The
preliminary results have Luxon’s three party coalition
(National, ACT and New Zealand First) holding 67 out of 131
seats – a narrow majority on the night.
But this
may be reduced once special votes are counted, meaning
Hipkins still stands a chance of leading a four-party
coalition (Labour, Green, Te Pāti Māori,
Opportunity).
The basic goal for both sides is to
command a majority of the seats in the House of
Representatives. The question at the moment is who will lead
that majority, and which parties will it consist of. A
government rules only so long as it has the confidence of
the house.
So, given the cliffhanger outcome and
the time it will take to resolve, what happens in the
meantime?
Caretaker government
in action
Under the caretaker convention,
incumbent prime minister Luxon and his team of ministers
remain in office. It’s not correct to say “there’s no
government”. The governor general must always have
responsible advisers and day-to-day administration must
continue.
During this caretaker period, significant
decisions will be deferred or attended to with a light
touch. If a national emergency arose, however, then the
caretaker government would of course act, of necessity.
Significant or controversial issues that can’t
be deferred should be decided in consultation with other
parties, to ensure the matter has the confidence of the
house.
How the caretaker ministers conduct
themselves in this period is a matter of political judgement
and attention to the decision-making context. As the Cabinet
Manual puts it, “There are no hard and fast
rules.”
Decision making is constrained for the
time being, but the government of the country will
continue.
Special votes tend to lean to the left.
The final count, then, may see a seat or two change hands.
Wairarapa, for instance, is provisionally
held by National’s Mike Butterick, but only by 139
votes.
The size of the overhang (currently a
record-breaking 11 seats) may also change.
Those
variables will affect how the parties on both sides of the
house negotiate to reach agreements to form the next
government. Once a workable majority is found on one side or
the other, the parties in that coalition must make it clear
to the public what their arrangements are.
The
governor general does not guide or participate in the
negotiations, but appoints the ministers to the new
government once it’s clear which parties have the
confidence of the house.
An obligation for stable
government
There should be no need for a fresh
election. It’s up to the parties now to find a majority.
There are strong incentives for them to do so, and no party
wants to be blamed for forcing the country to return to the
polls.
If the final numbers deprive Luxon’s
incumbent coalition of a majority, commentators have mostly
assumed there may be a role for the newcomer Opportunity
Party. But Opportunity’s policies are more compatible with
the three parties of the left.
Given the party’s
MPs are all new to parliament, though, it may make sense for
them to support a government on a confidence
and supply basis, or even by promising to abstain on
confidence votes – if their support is actually
needed.
A majority can always be found, but that
always requires some compromises – that is the point of
the system. The parties are under a powerful obligation to
provide a stable government – and, constitutionally, the
governor general must never be without responsible advisers
(ministers).
For the time being, then, there is a
caretaker government and public administration carries on.
The people have cast their votes to elect their
representatives. It’s now up to those representatives to
form the next government.
Grant
Duncan, Research Associate, Public Policy Institute,
University
of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
This article is republished from The Conversation
under a Creative Commons license. Read the original
article.
