The Coalition Government has extended its lead thanks to
a strong New Zealand First result, while The Opportunity
Party is still beneath the 5 percent threshold needed to
reach Parliament.
National is down 0.5 points to 28.5
percent, while Labour gains 2.3 points to 28.2 percent. The
Greens drop 0.6 points to 13.3 percent, while New Zealand
First is up 3.6 points to 12.0 percent. ACT drops 1.3 points
to 9.2 percent, and Te Pāti Māori falls 0.6 points to 1.4
percent.
Headline results and more information about
the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers’ Union’s
website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/oct2026_nztucurpolljjhhfas
For
the minor parties, Opportunity is up 0.3 points to 4.8
percent. However, the margin of error means there is a 42
percent chance Opportunity is actually above the 5 percent
threshold. Women’s Rights is on 0.9 percent (+0.2 points).
Vision NZ is on 0.7 percent (+0.2 points), New Conservatives
on 0.3 percent (-0.2 points), and NZ Loyal 0.3 percent (-1.2
points). Te Tai Tokerau is on 0.3 percent (+0.1 points) and
Free Palestine is on 0.2 percent (-0.1 points).
This
month’s results are compared to the last Taxpayers’
Union-Curia Poll conducted in September 2026, available
at www.taxpayers.org.nz/sept26_pollnztughjkuhn
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National
drops 2 seats from last month to 37 and Labour increases by
1 to 36. The Greens lose 1 seat to 17 and New Zealand First
increases 5 seats to 16. ACT is down 2 to 12 while Te Pāti
Māori loses 1 to 2. Opportunity remains at 0
seats.
The combined projected seats for the
‘Government Bloc’ (National, ACT, and New Zealand First) is
up 1 seat to 65, while the projected seats for the
‘Opposition Bloc’ (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori, and
Opportunity) drops 1 seat to 55. On these numbers, the
current Coalition would be able to form a
Government.
Christopher Luxon remains ahead of Chris
Hipkins as preferred Prime Minister, unchanged on 21.2
percent. Hipkins gains 4.1 points to 21.0
percent.
National retains a lead over Labour on the
Economy, Spending, Education, Safety, Inflation,
Environment, and not increasing taxes. Labour lead on
Housing, Health, and Poverty.
Commenting on the
results, Taxpayers’ Union Spokesperson Tory Relf
said:
“Less than a month from polling day, New
Zealand First is doing the heavy lifting for the Coalition.
National and ACT have both lost ground, but Winston
Peters’ gains have extended the Government’s
lead.”
“National and Labour are both below 30
percent and would hold barely 60 percent of Parliament’s
seats between them. National can take some comfort in still
leading Labour on the economy, spending, education, and most
key battleground issues.”
“Opportunity remains
below the five percent threshold for the second consecutive
poll. On these numbers, it would miss out on Parliament, and
the current Coalition would return with 65
seats.”
