– 49% would support delaying the return to
surplus by one year to restore pay equity
–
46% would support delaying the net debt target by
two years
– A majority of Labour,
Greens and Opportunity voters support
delays
– National voters split 39%
for and 39% against delaying surplus; only ACT voters
strongly opposed
New Zealanders’ support for
restoring pay equity extends to a willingness to see
governments adjust their fiscal targets, if necessary, to
make provision for the cost of doing so, a new Talbot Mills
poll commissioned by the PSA shows.
The
National-ACT-New Zealand First coalition estimates that it
had saved $12.8 billion over four years through its decision
in May last year to scrap pay equity claims under urgency,
without warning and without consultation. Coalition parties
have suggested that it would be unaffordable for a future
Government to settle these claims and the legislative
framework that supported it.
“We reject the suggestion
that fiscal targets are more important than paying women
workers what it’s proven they are worth and this poll
shows New Zealanders agree,” said Fleur Fitzsimons, National
Secretary for the Public Service Association Te Pūkenga
Here Tikanga Mahi.
“We’ve previously identified
savings that could bring the net fiscal cost down well below
previous fiscal estimates.- Plus, the next Government can
have revenue measures or use some of its Budget operating
allowances to contribute to the cost.”
Advertisement – scroll to continue reading
Even on the
most conservative assumptions, where the full gross cost of
restoring pay equity flows through the Government accounts,
the impact of this would be:
– to delay the operating
balance (as measured by OBEGALx) coming back in surplus by
just one year, from 2028/29 to 2029/30; and
– to push
out the date for achieving the target of bringing net core
Crown debt down to 40 percent of GDP (‘the 40 percent
target’) by a modest two years from 2032 to
2034.–
“These are fiscal adjustments that New Zealand
can easily afford,” said Council of Trade Unions National
Secretary Melissa Ansell-Bridges.
“What’s more, this
polling shows that New Zealanders strongly support the
Government making these choices, if needed to restore pay
equity.”
Far more New Zealanders would be prepared to
delay the Government’s return to surplus by a year to
restore pay equity than oppose it, 49 percent to 28
percent.
Support for delaying the 40 percent debt
target by two years also leads voter sentiment, 46 percent
to 29 percent.
This poll adds to growing public
pressure on parties contesting the election to make a
tangible commitment to restore pay equity (poll details
below).
“Voters are ahead of the politicians,” said
Ansell-Bridges. “The next Government must right the wrongs
of the past and deliver pay equity for the 180,000
predominantly female workers whose pay rise was sacrificed
to make the Budget numbers work.
“New Zealanders
understand that paying people their true worth for the jobs
they do matters, and that it should come ahead of the fiscal
targets. They are prepared to wait a little longer for a
surplus to see it done.”
The poll shows it’s not just
voters on the left. National voters are evenly split on
delaying the surplus, and NZ First voters are more likely to
back a delay than oppose it. Only ACT voters are clearly
opposed.
Women are more likely to support delaying the
surplus for pay equity (53 percent) than men (45 percent).
On the debt target, support leads opposition in every age
group, from 51 percent to 24 percent among 18-29 year olds
to 42 percent to 32 percent among those aged 60 and
over.
“The evidence for restoring pay equity is strong
just like the public support,” said Fleur
Fitzsimons.
“PSA analysis shows reinstating it would
grow the economy by $13.5 billion over four years, create
around 13,000 jobs, and lift an estimated 11,000 children
out of poverty.
“The Government has defended scrapping
pay equity on fiscal cost grounds. This poll shows many
voters are willing to accept a short delay in the current
fiscal targets to get it back.”
Earlier polling points
the same way. A PSA-CTU
Horizon Research poll in September last year found 42
percent opposed the pay equity changes, and a RNZ
Reid Research poll in June last year found 43 percent
against the overhaul.
“Restoring pay equity is the
right thing to do, morally, fiscally and economically. The
care and support settlement is ready to implement and should
be resolved in the first 100 days,” said
Fitzsimons
Talbot Mills Research nationwide online
survey commissioned by the PSA. Sample size 1894, adults
aged 18 and over. Maximum sampling error ±2.3% at the 95%
confidence level. Fieldwork was conducted between 10 and 17
September 2026. Full survey report attached.
Poll
Details
Questions:
For the last few
years, the Government has been spending more than it has
been bringing in. This is currently expected to flip –
called returning to surplus – in 2029. Would you support
delaying the return to surplus by one year, until 2030, in
order to restore pay equity for New Zealand women?
–
Yes – 49%
– No – 28%
– Unsure – 23%
The
current Government has a goal of getting net Government debt
below 40% of New Zealand’s gross domestic product. Current
forecasts suggest that this goal might be achieved in 2032.
Would you support delaying the achievement of the 40% target
by two years, until 2034, in order to restore pay equity for
New Zealand women?
– Yes – 46%
– No –
29%
– Unsure – 25%
– Previous PSA
analysis on fiscal and economic benefits of pay
equity:
9
September Restoring pay equity would boost income of 91,000
families by $300/week – PSA analysis
23
August Govt’s axing of pay equity cost jobs & GDP
growth – PSA analysis
— Analysis of the fiscal
impact of restoring pay equity out of existing revenue (and
with no offsetting savings taken into account) was performed
using Treasury’s Budget 2026 fiscal strategy model
(FSM).
