Mark Rabago
RNZ Pacific CNMI correspondent
A US foreign policy
think tank is proposing a major shift in America’s military
strategy in Asia that would put Guam, the Northern Mariana
Islands, and other Pacific islands at the centre of
Washington’s regional military posture.
Defense
Priorities, a Washington-based think tank, said the US
should move much of its military presence away from the
“first island chain”, including Japan, Taiwan, South Korea,
and the Philippines, and concentrate more forces along the
more distant “second island chain”.
The proposal
identifies Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana
Islands (CNMI), Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia,
and the Marshall Islands as locations where US forces could
be positioned farther from China’s coastline.
Under
the proposed strategy, Tinian in the CNMI could become one
of several smaller air bases used to disperse US personnel
and military assets across the Pacific.
In an
explainer titled A
second island chain strategy for Asia, Defense
Priorities researcher Jennifer Kavanagh said the US already
has at least 8000 military personnel along the second island
chain, most of them on Guam.
Rather than significantly
increasing that number, the think tank proposes spreading
personnel across Guam, Palau, the Marshall Islands, the
Federated States of Micronesia and smaller airfields such as
Tinian.
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It said these locations could host
intelligence and combat-support units, air defenses, drones
and small groups of Marines equipped with mobile anti-ship
missiles.
The strategy also calls for fighter aircraft
and other specialised planes to operate from the second
island chain, while submarines would remain based on Guam
and naval vessels would rotate through the
region.
Defense Priorities argues that shifting forces
farther from China’s coastline would make US bases more
survivable while reducing the risk of Washington becoming
involved in a major conflict with Beijing.
Guam would
remain an important logistics hub and base for long-range
military assets, but spreading forces across the wider
Pacific could make the US military less dependent on the
island.
The proposal comes as the US military is
already investing in infrastructure in the Northern
Marianas, including facilities on Tinian to support
increased military operations.
But the Defense
Priorities proposal goes much further than expanding
military infrastructure in the Pacific.
It calls for
the United States to eventually end its mutual defense
alliances with South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, and
Japan and replace them with narrower security
partnerships.
It also recommends Washington adopt an
explicit policy of non-intervention over Taiwan.
The
think tank proposes removing most US Army and Marine Corps
deployments from Asia and significantly reducing American
air and naval forces in the region.
Defense Priorities
said the changes could be phased in over three to eight
years, with most completed by 2030 and the transition
finalised by 2035.
It argues that concentrating a
smaller US military presence farther east would continue to
protect American access to Asian markets and trade routes
without maintaining large forces close to China.
The
recommendations are those of Defense Priorities and do not
represent an announced change in US government or Pentagon
policy.
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