An Area of Forest the Size of 18
Football Fields Will be Destroyed Every Day for the Next 25
Years to Meet EU Demand for Electric Vehicles Under Current
Scenarios, New Study Finds
Report proposes
roadmap for supporting transition to electric cars, while
minimising harm to forests and Indigenous Peoples’ rights;
new policies could reduce deforestation by
82%
PARIS – May 7, 2025 – A new
report released today during the OECD Forum on
Responsible Mining reveals that the minerals needed to power
the EU’s demand for Electric Vehicles (EVs) will place a
huge toll on the world’s forests and on communities of
Indigenous Peoples, unless policymakers urgently change
course.
This is the first time a report models the
potential deforestation fuelled by future demand for EVs in
the EU (through to 2050). The report finds that a
business-as-usual scenario, relying on batteries composed
mostly of minerals extracted from the soil of carbon-rich
ecosystems, would cause the destruction of 118,000
hectares of forests. This corresponds to 18 football
fields of forest vanishing every day for the next
twenty-five years.
But the study also shows
that this apocalyptic vision of the future can be avoided.
The authors identify two main ways to limit the
deforestation risk linked to future demand for EVs in the
European Union: the adoption of battery technology
and new mobility measures that would slash demand for
transition minerals. The report also suggests that
smarter sourcing strategies can further help mitigate
deforestation impacts.
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“There
is no question of whether we need a sustainable transition
in the transport sector” said Perrine Fournier,
campaigner at forest and rights group Fern. “But we need
to ensure that it doesn’t come at the expense of the
world’s forests and the people living in
them.”
“Our study suggests that when you
consider the repercussions of the green transport transition
on forests and rights, there is an opportunity to innovate
by rethinking car use and investigating battery technologies
that reduce deforestation. This would also increase
Europe’s security by reducing its reliance on vulnerable
supply chains,” Fournier said.
At a
crossroad
The study, “Driving change not
deforestation: How Europe could mitigate the negative
impacts of its transport transition,” was commissioned by
Fern and Rainforest Foundation Norway. The study was carried
out by researchers from the French Think Tank négaWatt,
which has modelled demand for metals and minerals in the
transport sector, and the Vienna University of Economics and
Business (WU Vienna), which translated the scenarios to
reveal the resulting deforestation that would occur in the
countries most affected by such mining.
The
researchers propose a credible alternative pathway for the
EU’s EV sector; named the CLEVER scenario, it would
decrease projected deforestation by an estimated 82%, from
118,000 to 21,300 hectares.
This scenario relies on a
switch to more innovative LFP batteries, which use iron and
phosphate, instead of NMC 811 batteries, which are currently
most used for the EU’s EVs, and which rely heavily on
nickel and cobalt.
The CLEVER scenario is also based
on policy measures that would contribute significantly to
reducing the transport sectors’ mineral needs, by up to
43% for copper and cobalt compared to the business as usual
scenario.
The IPCC’s
Sixth Assessment Report calls for the development of
sufficiency policies which are defined as a “set of
measures and daily practices that avoid demand for energy,
materials, land and water while delivering human well-being
for all within planetary boundaries”.
“Our
study shows that sufficiency is a key lever for forest
conservation: promoting smaller cars, encouraging
carpooling, reducing travel demand, and cutting car
dependency, particularly through more shared mobility.
Sufficiency means using fewer resources by rethinking what
we truly need. It offers real opportunities for EU
consumers, with lower mobility costs and less reliance on
private cars, while also reducing our dependency on
strategic metal imports. Moreover, it can strengthen the
EU’s industrial strategy by boosting the competitiveness
of smaller, European-made vehicles against imported Chinese
models,” said to Adrien Toledano, who co-authored the
study for négaWatt.
Deforestation stemming
from the mining sector
Batteries account for
approximately 70% of the deforestation footprint of EVs,
while manufacture of vehicle bodies is responsible for the
remaining 30%. The study evaluates direct deforestation
caused by the expansion of areas for mining iron, bauxite,
copper, manganese, nickel and cobalt.
Mines
also cause indirect deforestation far beyond the immediate
mining site, with the growth of surrounding settlements and
the construction of infrastructure to meet the need for
energy and transportation. Such indirect
deforestation is not addressed in this study, but industrial
mining has been shown to cause indirect deforestation in
two-thirds of tropical countries, according to a 2022
peer-reviewed paper.
Academics from WU Vienna
have found that more responsible sourcing strategies
could further reduce the deforestation impact.
Concretely, this means prioritising sourcing from countries
with a particularly low level of historic
deforestation.
“The future deforestation impacts
of EVs will also depend on where we source the metals.
Forest loss per tonne of metal mined can vary by a factor of
20. Taking mining locations into account is therefore very
important to minimise negative impacts on forests,”
according to Stefan Giljum, heading the research team at
WU Vienna.
Mining-induced deforestation is
smaller in scale than agriculture, but the damages it
causes, such as the pollution of water and soil, is
permanent.
Opposition to mineral extraction is widespread and very
often results in costly delays and cancellations, according
to peer
reviewed studies. Mining companies often fail to fully
evaluate the costs of conflict, according to this peer
reviewed paper.
“Unless
we act, Indigenous Peoples and local communities will pay a
heavy price for our move to EVs. A range of measures can
stop this. These include laws to ensure critical minerals’
supply chains are transparent, traceable and accountable;
companies at both ends of the supply chain conducting
environmental and human rights due diligence on their supply
chains; and investors using their power to exert pressure on
companies to put an end to any abuses,” said
Jasmine Puteri, Senior Advisor Supply Chain
Rainforest Foundation Norway.
Main
findings from the new study follow
below:
Metal demand will peak by
2030 before slightly declining. The EU’s yearly
metal demand for EVs is expected to reach 24.5 million
tonnes by 2030 before decreasing due to the longer lifespans
of EVs.
Different battery technologies
require different metals. In all scenarios, metals
for the car body such as steel and aluminium make up the
largest share of minerals. However, the choice of technology
strongly influences the types of battery metals needed. NMC
811 batteries rely heavily on nickel and cobalt, whereas LFP
batteries use iron and
phosphate.
Sufficiency measures reduce
metal demand. The CLEVER scenario, which includes
shared mobility, smaller vehicle sizes, and reduced
passenger kilometres, leads to significantly lower material
demand compared to the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario –
a reduction of 82%.
Deforestation
footprint of the EU’s growing EV fleet. Under the
BAU scenario, EV-related mining expansion could result in
65,200 hectares of deforestation by 2050. If NMC 811
batteries dominate, deforestation could increase by 81% to
117,800 hectares. In contrast, switching to LFP batteries
could reduce deforestation by 43% to 37,300 hectares. A
CLEVER scenario, which combines sufficiency measures with
LFP batteries, would decrease the deforestation footprint by
82% (compared to BAU with NMC 811) to 21,300
hectares.
Battery technology plays a
critical role in deforestation patterns. Batteries
account for approximately 70% of the deforestation footprint
of EVs, while vehicle bodies contribute only 30%. The type
of battery used in EVs significantly affects deforestation
levels. NMC 811 batteries, which require cobalt, copper, and
nickel, are linked to high deforestation rates. In contrast,
LFP batteries rely on materials with relatively lower
deforestation intensity, such as iron, leading to a much
smaller deforestation footprint. Further, different battery
technologies rely on different metals and hence different
sourcing countries. Indonesia and Brazil were identified as
deforestation hotspots throughout the
scenarios.
Sourcing strategies can
mitigate deforestation impacts. The geographic
origin of metals significantly influences deforestation.
Three sourcing scenarios were analysed: (1) a
‘Basecase’ Scenario, where metal
sourcing follows historical trends, (2) a ‘Forest
at Risk’ Scenario with a higher share of metals
from countries with high deforestation intensities,
increasing deforestation risks by up to 266%, and (3) a
‘Forest and Peoples Protection Scenario’
prioritising sourcing from low-deforestation
countries, which could reduce impacts by up to
41%.
