By Laura Quinones
26 March
2025
The race toward renewable energy is
accelerating. And for all the looming challenges of the
climate crisis, signs of progress are clear: Solar panels
are beginning to blanket deserts, wind turbines dot
coastlines, and hydropower dams are harnessing powerful
rivers to generate electricity without the carbon pollution
that has made fossil fuels the single largest driver of
global warming.
In fact, new
data from the International Renewable Energy Agency
(IRENA) shows that global renewable capacity grew by a
record 585 gigawatts in 2024, representing over 90 percent
of all new power added worldwide, and the fastest annual
growth rate in two decades.
Yet, as the push for
renewables gains momentum—fueled by falling costs and the
urgent need to phase out oil, gas, and coal—experts are
warning that climate change, largely caused by decades of
fossil fuel combustion, is now increasingly shaping—and in
some cases, threatening—the way clean energy is
produced.
This trend became more pronounced in 2023,
marked by a volatility that disrupted renewable energy
generation globally. Temperatures soared 1.45°C above
pre-industrial levels, and the shift from La
Niña to El Niño altered rainfall, wind patterns, and
solar radiation.
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Hamid Bastani, a climate and energy
expert with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), provided a stark
example of this impact. “In Sudan and Namibia, hydropower
output dropped by more than 50 per cent due to unusually low
rainfall,” he said in an interview with UN News.
In
Sudan, rainfall totaled just 100 millimeters (less than four
inches) in 2023—less than half the national long-term
average.
“This is a country where hydropower makes
up around 60 per cent of the electricity mix. These
reductions could have significant implications,” Mr.
Bastani explained, noting that the power system supports a
large and rapidly growing population of about 48
million.
These shifts were not limited to hydropower.
Wind energy, too, showed signs of stress under changing
climate conditions.
China, which accounts for 40 per
cent of global onshore wind capacity, saw only a modest 4 to
8 per cent increase in output in 2023, as wind anomalies
disrupted generation. In India, production declined amid
weaker monsoon winds, while some regions in Africa
experienced even sharper losses, with wind output falling by
as much as 20 to 30 per cent.
South America,
meanwhile, saw the scale tip in the other direction. Clear
skies and elevated solar radiation boosted solar panel
performance, particularly in countries like Brazil,
Colombia, and Bolivia.
As such, the region saw a four
to six per cent increase in solar generation – a
climate-driven bump that translated to roughly three
terawatt-hours of additional electricity, enough to power
over two million homes for a year at average consumption
rates.
“This is a good example of how climate
variability can sometimes create opportunity,” explains
Roberta Boscolo, who leads WMO’s New York Office and
formerly the agency’s climate and energy work. “In
Europe, too, we are seeing more days with high solar
radiation, meaning solar power is becoming more efficient
over time.”
Ms. Boscolo and Mr. Bastani are among
the contributors to a recent WMO–IRENA
study examining how climate conditions in 2023, shaped
by El Niño, global warming, and regional extremes, affected
both renewable energy generation and energy demand
worldwide.
Systems built on stability, in a
world that is anything but
Ms. Boscolo, who
has spent years working at the intersection of climate
science and energy policy, is quick to point out the
vulnerability of renewable energy infrastructure. Dams,
solar farms, and wind turbines are all designed based on
past climate patterns, making them susceptible to the
changing climate.
Take hydropower. Dams rely on
predictable seasonal flows, often fed by snowmelt or glacial
runoff. “There will be a short-term boost in hydropower as
glaciers melt,” she said. “But once those glaciers are
gone, so is the water. And that is irreversible – at least
on human timescales.”
This pattern is already
unfolding in regions like the
Andes and the Himalayas. If the meltwater disappears,
countries will need to replace the way they generate power
or face long-term energy deficits.
A recent
report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), for example, pointed
out that rising sea levels and stronger storms pose growing
risks to energy production facilities, including solar farms
located near coastlines.
Similarly, increasingly
intense and frequent wildfires can also take down power
lines and black out entire regions, while extreme heat can
reduce the efficiency of solar panels and strain grid
infrastructure—just as demand for cooling
peaks.
Nuclear power plants are also at risk in the
changing climate.
“We have seen nuclear power plants
that could not operate because of the lack of water… for
cooling,” Ms. Boscolo said. As heatwaves become more
frequent and river levels drop, some older nuclear
facilities may no longer be viable in their current
locations.
“This is another thing that should be
looked at with different eyes in the future . When we
design, when we build, when we project power generation
infrastructure, we really need to think about what the
climate of the future will be, not what was the climate of
the past”.
Adapting to the future through
data, AI and technology
The expert
underscores that one thing is certain: Our planet is heading
towards a future in which electricity, especially from
renewable sources, will be central.
“Our transport
is going to be electric; our cooking is going to be
electric; our heating is going to be electric. So, if we do
not have a reliable electricity system, everything is going
to collapse. We will need to have this climate intelligence
when we think about how to change our energy systems and the
reliability and the resilience of our energy system in the
future.”
Indeed, to adapt, both experts emphasized a
need to embrace what they call climate
intelligence – the integration of climate
forecasts, data, and science into every level of energy
planning.
“In the past, energy planners worked with
historical averages,” Mr. Bastani explained. “But the
past is no longer a reliable guide. We need to know what the
wind will be doing next season, what rainfall will look like
next year – not just what it looked like a decade
ago.”
In Chile, for instance, hydropower generation
surged by as much as 80 per cent in November 2023, due to
unusually high rainfall. While this increase was
climate-driven, experts say advanced seasonal forecasting
could help dam operators better anticipate such events in
the future and manage reservoirs to store water more
effectively.
Similarly, wind farm workers can use
forecasts to schedule maintenance during low-wind periods
– minimizing downtime and avoiding losses. Grid operators,
too, can plan for energy spikes during heatwaves or
droughts.
“We now have forecasts that span from a
few seconds ahead to several months,” Mr. Bastani said.
“Each one has a specific application – from immediate
grid balancing to long-term investment
decisions.”
Artificial intelligence (AI) is lending
a hand: Machine learning models trained on climate and
energy data can now predict resource fluctuations with
higher resolution and accuracy. These tools could help
optimize when to deploy battery storage or shift energy
between regions, making the system more flexible and
responsive.
“These models can help operators better
anticipate fluctuations in wind, rainfall, or solar
radiation”, Mr. Bastain explained.
For example, two
recent WMO energy mini projects illustrated how
artificial intelligence can be applied in real-world
renewable energy planning. In Costa Rica, the agency worked
with national energy authorities to develop and implement an
AI-based model for short-term wind speed forecasting. The
tool is now integrated into the Costa Rican Electricity
Institute’s internal energy forecasting platform, helping
optimize operations at selected wind farms.
In Chile,
another project focused on floating solar technology, using
AI to estimate evaporation rates on reservoirs. The results,
now incorporated into Chile’s official Solar Energy
Explorer platform, showed that floating solar panels can
reduce water evaporation by up to 85 per cent in summer,
with a national average of 77 per cent.
Indeed, the
promise and challenge of climate-smart renewable planning
are most evident in the Global South. Africa, for instance,
boasts some of the best solar potential on the planet, yet
only two per cent of the world’s installed renewable
capacity is found on the continent.
Why the gap? Ms.
Boscolo points to a lack of data and investment.
“In
many parts of the Global South, there just is not enough
observational data to create accurate forecasts or make
energy projects bankable,” she said. “Investors need to
see reliable long-term projections. Without that, the risk
is too high.”
WMO is working to improve weather and
energy monitoring in underserved regions, but progress is
uneven. The agency is calling for more funding for local
data networks, cross-border energy planning, and climate
services tailored to regional needs.
“This is not
just about climate mitigation,” Ms. Boscolo added. “It
is a development opportunity. Renewable energy can bring
electricity to communities, drive industrial growth, and
create jobs if the systems are designed right.”
Mr.
Bastani sees a need for global data sharing between energy
companies and climate scientists.
“There is a huge
untapped potential in the data collected by the private
sector… integrating historical and real-time observations
from power plants – solar, wind, hydropower, even nuclear
– can significantly improve weather and climate models.
This is a win-win.”
Diversifying the energy
portfolio to adapt
Another key action to
guarantee clean energy in the near future is
diversification. Relying too heavily on only one renewable
source can expose countries to seasonal or long-term shifts
in climate, Mr. Bastani explains.
In Europe, for
example, energy planners are increasingly concerned about
something called “dunkelflaute”— a period of
cloudy, windless weather in winter that undermines both
solar power and wind generation. This phenomenon, linked to
high-pressure systems known as anticyclonic gloom, has
prompted calls for more energy storage and backup
power.
“A diversified mix that includes solar, wind,
hydro, battery storage, and even low-carbon sources (like
geothermal) is essential,” Mr. Bastani said. “Especially
as extreme weather becomes more
frequent.”
Into the future
As
the world races towards a future powered by renewable
energy, addressing the challenges posed by climate change is
imperative. The volatility experienced in 2023 underscores
the need for climate-smart planning and infrastructure that
can withstand unpredictable shifts in weather
patterns.
For renewable energy to truly fulfill its
promise, the world must invest not only in expanding
capacity but also in building a system that is resilient,
adaptable, and informed by the best available climate
science.
WMO experts Hamid Bastani and Roberta Boscolo
emphasize the importance of integrating climate intelligence
into energy systems to ensure their reliability and
resilience. By leveraging advanced forecasting and
artificial intelligence, we can better anticipate and adapt
to these changes, optimizing renewable energy production and
safeguarding our future.
The future of energy is not
just about more wind turbines and solar panels, but also
about ensuring they can withstand the very forces they are
meant to
mitigate.
