Patrick
Decloitre, Correspondent French Pacific
Desk
Analysis – French
minister for Overseas Manuel Valls is returning to New
Caledonia this weekend.
Less than one month after his
previous visit, he intends to further talks on the French
Pacific territory’s political future.
Valls has
already managed to get everyone back at the same table, but
this time around, he intends to initiate real
negotiations.
However, his chances of success are
still remote: opposing camps, pro-France and
pro-independence, are holding tight to their respective –
and oft-called irreconcilable – claims.
Valls was in
New Caledonia for a week, between 22 February and 1
March.
During his stay, his most notable success
was to manage to get all
opposing parties (those who want New Caledonia to remain
part of France and those who want full sovereignty) to sit
around the same table for talks, something that had not
happened since late 2021, after the third (in a series of
three) referenda on self-determination.
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After his last
visit, Valls published a document
he called a “synthesis paper” summing up both pro-France
and pro-independence camps’ often antagonistic views, and
that is now supposed to be a working basis for more advanced
talks.
On each side, New Caledonia’s most outspoken
parties have since acknowledged the value of these talks,
but that they were only “discussions”, not
negotiations.
In an interview with French media
outlets BFMTV and RMC earlier in March, Valls, a former
French prime minister, said the situation in New Caledonia
was not appeased yet and that a comprehensive agreement on
the French Pacific territory’s political future was still
remote.
“I will continue to work with a lot of
humility,” he said, adding: “Even though we managed to get
all political forces to speak to each other again, we are
still far from an agreement.
“It is still tense
because there’s been a lot of violence [since the May
2024 insurrectional riots, a lot of fear, a lot of
racism, and people who no longer speak to each
other.
“One has to understand the fear all of our
compatriots over there, and especially those of European
origin, have gone through. And to understand also the
Kanaks’ aspiration to emancipation and
decolonisation.”
Walking on a
tightrope
Juggling with those two antagonistic and
highly-sensitive concepts, Valls admitted that these were
presently “two logics” at play, and “now we have to ensure
that through dialogue, a political agreement can emerge from
this”.
The next step, during his four-day trip
(between 29 March and 1 April), now appears to advance from
“talks” and “discussions” to “negotiations” while at the
same time trying not to appear as pushing the
agenda.
The French minister is planning to hold this
fresh round of talks at the French High commission in
Nouméa, behind closed doors, every day of his four-day
stay.
The main pillars of those political discussions
would be around the definition of New Caledonia’s future
links with France, possible future transfer of powers from
France to New Caledonia, a future New Caledonian
citizenship, and the related question of who is eligible to
vote at local elections, governance and a “project” for New
Caledonia’s society.
On the table is also the general
question of New Caledonia’s future status in relation to
France: from “shared sovereignty” to “full independence”
and, in between, a status quo or a “free association”, or
any other yet-to-be-defined proposal.
A good
indication of the remaining level of tension: as soon as his
agenda was published just before his departure for the South
Pacific, there were immediate reactions from the
pro-independence FLNKS (dominated by prominent party Union
Calédonienne) because the word “negotiations” was used to
describe the scheduled political talks.
Negotiations
or still just talks?
On the eve of Valls’ arrival,
FLNKS was demanding “clarifications”, because it says it
regards itself as still “in the preparatory phase” of
talks.
Union Calédonienne Secretary-General Dominique
Fochi said in a communiqué on Friday that “every
advancement towards negotiations is preconditioned to a
clear, balanced and shared methodological
framework”.
The release also alludes to “implicit
pressure” if Valls was to hold negotiations “forcibly”, thus
jeopardising the notion of “mutual trust”.
The
pro-independence umbrella re-states that, on its path to
self-determination, some “unavoidable elements” need to be
discussed “before engaging into negotiations”.
One of
these elements is FLNKS’s demand that its president
Christian Téin (who is currently serving a pre-trial jail
term in mainland France’s Mulhouse gaol) should be part of
the talks.
Téin was arrested in June 2024 and
transferred to mainland France in relation to alleged
organised criminal activities. He was elected FLNKS
President in absentia during a FLNKS Congress in August
2024.
Another of these demands was the supervision of
the talks by the United Nations.
The recently-elected
President of the pro-independence Union Calédonienne,
Emmanuel Tjibaou, said they also want a quick
independence, with a “Kanaky Accord” to be signed this year,
to be followed by a five-year “transition”
period.
Pro-France camp irked by other
words
On the other side of the political spectrum,
outspoken leader and French National Assembly MP Nicolas
Metzdorf repeatedly objected to debating New Caledonia’s
“link” with France, a topic they considered
irrelevant.
Metzdorf’s position, followed by a large
part of the pro-France camp, is that between 2018 and 2021,
three referendums have been held on self-determination and
they have all rejected the notion of New Caledonia’s
independence.
However, the third
and latest poll in December 2021 was boycotted by a large
part of the pro-independence voters.
“When you are
French [as we are], you don’t have a ‘link’ with France, you
are France,” he wrote on social networks this week, after
yet another exchange with Valls in Paris.
The scene of
the exchange was earlier this week when Valls, questioned by
the French National Assembly’s Delegation for Overseas, said
New Caledonia’ was now at a “decisive, historical moment.
And only dialogue will allow a common project to
emerge.”
During the same
session, Valls also said that in any future
configuration for New Caledonia, he believed France would
probably remain in charge of such powers as defence, justice
and law and order.
“Non-negotiable
fundamentals”
The two most prominent pro-France
parties, Rassemblement-LR and Les Loyalistes, also spoke on
numerous occasions since Valls’s departure in early March,
mostly to demand more “clarifications”.
During future
talks, they reject any notion that would fall “outside the
framework of the French Republic”.
Les Loyalistes
leader and Southern Province President Sonia Backès told
local media the outcome of the three referendums, to remain
a part of France, equality of all communities, were
non-negotiable fundamentals that must be
respected.
“Yes to a political compromise, but only
within the French Republic,” she said.
Metzdorf added:
“We just want to make one thing clear: we will never accept
to sign any political compromise or agreement that would be
independence, independence association or even a path to
independence-association.
“The only political
compromise that we’ll commit to sign will be within the
French Republic, in keeping with the results of the three
referendums.”
The pro-France Les Loyalistes and
Rassemblement-LR are also advocating for significant changes
in the way the three provinces are managed, a concept
described as “internal federalism”, but slammed by critics
as tantamount to some kind of institutionalised
apartheid.
Tribune in New Zealand
media
Apparently aiming for a regional Pacific
audience, the Minister also managed to have his views
relayed in the New Zealand media, through an
opinion piece published last week.
He wrote
“France is fully committed” to “protecting” New Caledonia
“and all its overseas territories from any foreign
interference aimed at destabilising the territory or
undermining France’s strategic interests”.
“I
categorically reject any efforts to exploit New Caledonia as
a pawn in the geopolitical game, and we will decisively
prevent it… These external challenges only strengthen our
resolve to find a consensual solution for New
Caledonia.”
The more moderate positions
Still
on the pro-France side, a leader of pro-France Rassemblement
party, Virginie Ruffenach, told public broadcaster NC la
Première that because “some movements in the camp across
the road said we are not yet in negotiations, then we shall
wait and see”.
Moderate pro-independence PALIKA (Kanak
Liberation Party) leader Jean-Pierre Djaïwé said the most
pressing issue, in his view, was to deal with the issue of
New Caledonia’s future relationship with France.
“We
cannot envisage this country’s future without everyone. We
really need to live together and understand each other,”
Djaïwé told pro-France Radio Rythme Bleu on
Friday.
“But unfortunately, too often, we often live
not together, but next to one another.
“We can’t stay
on our positions; we just have to move forward.
“Let’s
work together to bring our country to full sovereignty, in
partnership with France.”
He also denied that a
possible alliance of moderate parties (such as the
Wallisian-based Eveil Océanien, the pro-France Calédonie
Ensemble and pro-independence moderates) could be formed to
promote a “third way”.
Another moderate
pro-independence party, the Union Progressiste en
Mélanésie (UPM) leader Victor Tutugoro told a recent rally
that they favoured entering into negotiations for a “shared
future” “in partnership with France”.
Both PALIKA and
UPM, since September 2024, have openly distanced themselves
(saying they “do not recognise themselves” in the Union
Calédonienne’s radical approach) and are no longer taking
part in the FLNKS pro-independence political
bureau.
“Even though the objective is the same, we
cannot be on the side of people who hold a different view
[in terms of accessing independence].
“Our line aims
at reassuring those in front of us who want New Caledonia to
remain part of France.”
Both PALIKA and UPM (who are
formed into a UNI-FLNKS caucus at New Caledonia’s Congress)
said they were ready to go to negotiations with
Valls.
Since Valls’s last visit, most political
parties have been touching base with their respective
militants and sympathisers, largely in rural New Caledonia,
officially to keep them informed on the developments arising
from the previous sequence of
talks.
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