Eloise
Gibson, Climate Change
Correspondent
Climate change is no longer a top threat
for the defence force in its latest spending plan.
The
2025 Defence Capability Plan downgrades climate change to
two mentions in a single paragraph – both about climate
change posing a threat to Pacific Island
countries.
The plan is a blueprint for how the
government will invest $12 billion over the next four years
for a “modern, combat-capable” New Zealand Defence
Force.
It said New Zealand was facing “the most
challenging and dangerous strategic environment in
decades”.
It marks a departure from the 2019 Defence
Capability Plan, which identified climate change as a key
driver of security events affecting New Zealand, mentioning
it 13 times and dedicating a chapter to outlining how
climate change would stretch the defence force.
Both
the Defence Assessment 2021 and Defence Policy and Strategy
Statement 2023 identified compounding impacts from climate
change as one of the two top threats to New Zealand’s
defence interests in the medium-to-long term.
The
other main threat was strategic competition.
The
latest plan highlights an increasingly dangerous strategic
environment, but almost all discussion of climate change had
been dropped.
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Defence Minister Judith Collins refused
to answer questions about why climate change was no longer
mentioned as a threat to New Zealand in the 2025 plan, and
whether she had directed the change.
The defence
ministry referred RNZ’s questions to the Minister.
RNZ
asked the Minister what had changed since previous plans and
whether climate change was no longer considered a threat to
New Zealand.
A spokesperson replied reiterating what
the plan said about climate change threatening some Pacific
Island countries:
“This Plan states that climate
change remains the primary security concern for Pacific
Island countries.
“Climate change is driving
increasing and intensifying natural disasters, in addition
to catastrophic events such as earthquakes and volcanic
eruptions, and increasingly over time could cause critical
challenges for some Pacific countries both directly and by
exacerbating other security issues.
“These impacts
will be responded to by the capabilities outlined in this
Plan. For example, this includes investment in the utility
helicopter fleet, increased surveillance and reconnaissance
capabilities, continued investment in vehicles, and
replacement of the HMNZS Canterbury,” was the full
response.
Asked again why the plan no longer discussed
climate change as a threat to New Zealand’s security, and
whether the Minister had directed the change, the
spokesperson said the Minister would not be adding anything
further.
Defence documents compared
2018:
The Climate Crisis: Defence Readiness and
Responsibilities report released by former Defence
Minister Ron Mark described how climate change would be one
of the greatest security challenges for New Zealand defence
in the coming decades, identifying climate change as one of
the most significant security threats of our
time.
2019: Defence Capability Plan mentions climate
change 13 times inside 43 pages,
including:
“Responding to the impacts of climate
change, which will continue to test the security and
resilience of our community, our nation, the South Pacific,
and the world….”
“By 2030 the environment within
which the New Zealand Defence Force is expected to respond
will have changed considerably. Driven by climate change and
competing national interests, the frequency and diversity of
security events are expected to have increased.”
“With
current warming rates, the links between climate change and
security are on course to intensify, and without
prioritisation the New Zealand Defence Force, as well as
those of our partners, will be stretched with a growing
number of tasks in response to climate-induced impacts
globally.”
“Key implications for New Zealand Defence
as a result of climate change will include: an increase in
the number of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief
operations; an increased likelihood of stability operations;
and a larger number of search and rescue missions occurring
across a broader geographical area. “
2023: Defence
Policy and Strategy Statement listed climate change as one
of two main threats, along with strategic competition. It
also went into detail about specific challenges and threats
from climate change. Climate change was mentioned 24
times.
July 2024 – June 2028 Statement of Intent,
signed by Minister Judith Collins, listed climate change as
one of the two main security threats.
2025: Defence
Capability Plan said New Zealand was facing the most
challenging and dangerous strategic environment in
decades.
The 45-page plan mentioned climate change
twice inside a single paragraph, both times in reference to
the Pacific Islands.
“Climate change remains the
primary security concern for Pacific Island countries. It is
driving increasing and intensifying natural disasters, and
over time could cause critical challenges for some Pacific
countries both directly and by exacerbating other security
issues,” it
said.
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