Kate
Newton , Climate Change
Correspondent
Relying on trees to offset New Zealand’s
emissions years into the future is putting “a significant
number of eggs in one basket”, the Climate Change Commission
chief executive has warned politicians.
New trees
would need to be “in the ground” within a couple of years
and could still be destroyed by forest fire or extreme
weather events – wiping out their carbon
savings.
Appearing before Parliament’s environment
select committee on Monday, commission chief executive Jo
Hendy was questioned about the “significant risks” the
commission identified earlier this year when it came to
meeting the country’s emissions budgets.
Emissions budgets
are set by the government, taking into account advice
from the commission.
They establish the total net
emissions the country can produce over a five-year period
and still keep its domestic and international climate goals
on track.
In its annual
emissions monitoring report released earlier this year,
the commission said there were risks to meeting the second
budget (2026-30) and third budget (2031-35).
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One of
those risks was relying on forest removals of carbon dioxide
to meet nearly half of the 2031-35 emissions
budget.
In response to questioning from Green Party
climate change spokesperson Chlöe Swarbrick, Hendy said
there were two main implications of that
approach.
“The first implication is you need those
forests in the ground quickly for that carbon to then start
sequestering,” she said.
“The other is risks around
things like fires and storms – you know, another Cyclone
Gabrielle taking a big hit out of that forestry. Then you’ll
be faced with a difficult situation where you might not be
able to meet the budget.”
Researchers have started
to warn that many of the natural carbon sinks that
society relies on to soak up emissions are now sometimes
releasing more carbon than they absorb.
Swarbrick
asked Hendy if she could explain the commission’s remarks
that “the reliance on forests for a large proportion of
emissions reduction is likely to increase the long-term cost
of meeting the 2050 target and increase impacts on future
generations”.
That was because using forestry to
offset emissions created less of an incentive for businesses
and communities to limit the amount of greenhouse gases
produced in the first place, Hendy said.
“As a result,
we don’t get as much decarbonisation in the
economy.
“When you don’t get as much decarbonisation
in the economy – what we’re talking about is electrification
of industry, for example – you are missing out on those
economic benefits of reduced costs.”
The commission has
long recommended that New Zealand “decarbonise where
possible”.
“Relying heavily on forestry might help
Aotearoa meet its 2050 emissions reduction targets but it
would make maintaining net zero long-lived emissions beyond
that date more difficult,” it told the previous government
in 2021.
“It would delay people taking actions that
reduce gross emissions, lead to higher cumulative emissions
and push the burden of addressing gross emissions on to
future generations.”
Tougher methane target was
feasible, affordable, achievable
The committee also
asked Hendy about the government’s decision to revise New
Zealand’s 2050 methane emissions target.
In October,
the government said it would scrap previous plans to
introduce agricultural emissions pricing by 2030, and would
pass
legislation to lower the 2050 methane target from a
24-47 percent reduction from 2017 levels, to a 14-24 percent
reduction, in line with a ‘no additional warming’
policy.
National MP Grant McCallum, a Northland beef
and dairy farmer, asked what the impact would be on the
rural sector if the current target was retained, if there
was no technology available to help farmers reduce their
methane emissions.
“One of the key considerations when
we do our scenario work for emissions budgets is impact on
rural communities,” Hendy said.
“We found that it was
a feasible and affordable and technically achievable, in our
previous emissions budget advice at the end of last
year.”
The upper end of the range could be achieved
with new technologies, while the 24 percent low end of the
range was based on technology that was already available,
and changes to farming practices.
There was a “good
pipeline” of methane-inhibiting technology, she
said.
“The key point will be making sure that it can
be deployed on farms.
“Not necessarily every tool will
work on every farm. It’s really about making sure that
farmers are enabled to work with the tools that work for
them.”
McCallum asked Hendy and commission chair Dame
Patsy Reddy twice about whether New Zealand should remain a
signatory to the Paris Agreement.
“Does the commission
have a view or has it given any consideration to the cause
of some people who think we should pull out of the Paris
Accord [sic]?”
Part of the commission’s mandate was
based on the agreement, Dame Patsy said.
“It’s not our
place to have a view.”
Prime Minister Christopher
Luxon has repeatedly
said the government was committed to the Paris Agreement
and New Zealand’s emissions targets, despite a push from
coalition partner ACT to leave the
pact.
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