Poor Performance Survey Leaves National Little Room For Error

Russell
Palmer, Political Reporter

Analysis
– A record-low rating of government performance will be
unwelcome news for Christopher Luxon in a political week
focused offshore.

He made a point of campaigning on
the cost of living at the election, inextricably tying his
government’s fortunes to a measure largely under the control
of the independent Reserve Bank and the vagaries of global
economics.

So it will be troubling that his party’s
primary saving grace out of the Ipsos
Issues Monitor survey – that New Zealanders are
increasingly less concerned about the cost of living – is
undercut by falling confidence in National’s ability to
handle it.

Adding to National’s woes, its rating has
fallen for each of the other top-five concerns. Direct
competitor Labour held steady on two of those, lost less
ground than National on the others, and improved on all 15
of the other top-20 issues – flipping seven of them from
blue to red.

With the majority of Trump’s tariffs yet
to take effect, and the reciprocal tariffs from affected
countries likely to also impact New Zealand exports and
imports, it may not be a surprise to see that even as worry
about inflation wanes, more general fears around the economy
continue to grow.

National is still seven points ahead
of Labour on economic management, but its rating is steadily
falling while Labour’s is holding steady.

Luxon just
last week was playing
down a new negative poll from his party’s pollster,
Curia – saying polls “bounce around” and he was focused on
the economy.

RNZ’s Corin Dann the next day took
this to its logical conclusion: “So the poor poll
result’s the result of the fact you haven’t fixed the
economy?”

Luxon’s answer, that inflation is slowing,
but it’s yet to really be felt in household budgets, lines
up with a strategy of riding the cyclical economic wave back
to the government benches.

Thursday’s news of GDP
turning a corner more sharply than expected certainly
supports the wisdom of such an approach, but it’s worth
keeping in mind the December result follows a
sharper-than-expected economic
shrinkage in the previous quarter.

The point is
polls are not the only thing that “bounce around” and in
both cases, it’s the trends that matter.

The negative
headlines in health have also hardly slowed, with public
concern hitting a new high of 40 percent last August and
increasing marginally since then.

National’s downward
trajectory on its health expertise took another four-point
hit in the latest survey, while Labour’s been consistently
increasing or holding steady for the past year.

This
is the first edition of the survey since Simeon Brown took
over as Health Minister from Northland doctor Shane Reti. He
is seen as less embedded in the sector, but a more strategic
and politically attuned operator.

He will be facing
growing pressure, and in recent weeks – not covered by the
survey’s polling period – has begun a rolling maul of
announcements, including plans to introduce a new target for
GP waiting times.

Whether that has a noticeable effect
on polling, or if voter sentiment on the topic has already
become bedded in, will be one to watch.

On this and
housing, Luxon and his party have a difficult task in
rebuilding voters’ confidence. At this point being seen as
not mismanaging the problem may not be enough – they’ll need
to show they can fix it.

At the same time, they’ll
need to avoid any coalition missteps on those topics
National sells itself as good at dealing with – like the
economy, and crime – or the party will suffer come election
time.

Trump’s unpredictability inspires unpredictable
responses, so on the economy at least the strategy of
banking on better times faces different – but still
politically dangerous – global headwinds to those that
helped crater Labour’s support in 2023.

Luxon’s trip
to India this week – and particularly the announcement of
the start of trade agreement negotiations – therefore seems
perfectly timed.

Progress on a much-hyped trade deal
will, however, need to be rapid if he’s to repair polling
trends in time for Election
Day.

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