New Climate Target ‘Below Expectations’ Of Partners, Government Warned

Eloise
Gibson, Climate Change Correspondent

The
government was told its climate target for 2035 was “below
expectations” for a developed country and unlikely to meet
the expectations of key partners and the international
community.

Officials laid out their assessments to
Cabinet for a range of possible climate targets, starting
from cutting emissions by 51 percent by 2035 and topping out
at 65 percent reductions.

The lowest possible starting
point was 51 percent, because the Paris Agreement requires
each country’s new target to be a step up on its previous
one – and New Zealand’s target for 2030 is 50
percent.

That was the figure the government went
with.

As well as being the lowest, it was also rated
by officials as the cheapest and most feasible to
achieve.

However the government left open the
possibility of achieving a 55 percent reduction, if
technology for reducing livestock emissions and other
developments go well.

When Climate Change Minister
Simon Watts announced the 51-55 percent target, he described
it as “ambitious”.

However the assessment he showed
Cabinet – which the Ministry for the Environment proactively
released this month – rated a 51 percent target as having
“low alignment” with the principle of fairly sharing climate
efforts between rich and poor countries. It was described as
“less likely to to be considered sufficient by key partners
and the global community” compared with any other target. A
55 percent target was rated slightly better but still not
strongly on the Paris Agreement’s principles of
equity.

The lowest target was, however, also rated
most feasible to implement and least likely to involve
spending money.

Under the Paris Agreement, each
country’s target is supposed to represent the “highest
possible ambition” in light of national
circumstances.

As a developed country, the advice says
New Zealand is expected to do more towards global
efforts.

In a Cabinet paper, Watts told other
government ministers that a target range of 51 percent to 55
percent “represents our highest possible ambition given our
national circumstances.”

He said it was “a relatively
small progression over the 50 percent reduction [for
2030]”.

“Other countries are likely to progress their
[Paris] commitments by more.”

However he noted it
could be achieved inside New Zealand, unlike the current
target which requires overseas help.

“Officials
estimate that achieving a reduction of 51 percent to 55
percent will reduce GDP by 0.1 percent to 0.3 percent in
2035, and cost the average household $80-$195 per year or
about $1.50-$3.75 per week,” Watts advised his colleagues in
the Cabinet paper.

He also noted that the government
was already legally required under the Zero Carbon Act to
reduce emissions in line with a 51 percent cut by 2035, so
this did not require any extra work.

However the
government is currently 9 million tonnes short of meeting
its obligation under the Act, based on policies today, a gap
Watts said would be addressed closer to the
time.

Achieving a 55 percent target would require an
extra 10 million tonnes of emissions cuts on top of what was
already required of the government in domestic law, he
said.

“There is uncertainty about what levels of
emissions reduction will be feasible in the 2031-35 period,”
he
said.

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