National Terrorism Threat Level Unchanged But Described As Possible Under Updated Language

New Zealand’s National Terrorism Threat Level
(terrorism threat level) remains unchanged following an
annual review by the Combined Threat Assessment Group
(CTAG), an inter-agency group hosted and led by the New
Zealand Security Intelligence Service (NZSIS).

Using
newly updated language, the terrorism threat level is
assessed as POSSIBLE which is equivalent to the previous
level of LOW. The change in language, previously signalled
by the NZSIS, reflects efforts to explain the terrorism
threat level in a more meaningful and accessible way for the
public.

The terrorism threat level is formally
reviewed annually, but can change at any time based on
events and the current intelligence picture for New Zealand.
It considers the domestic terrorism context and relevant
international threat factors, drawing on both classified
intelligence and publicly available
information.

“For some time NZSIS has talked
publicly about the deteriorating global threat environment,
and we have seen that deterioration continue,” says
Director-General of Security Andrew Hampton.

“We are
not yet at a point where the impact of this on New Zealand
requires a change in our domestic terrorism threat level,
but we are dealing with increasing complexities which makes
it harder to detect terrorism threats.

“Although the
terrorism threat level remains unchanged, we should not be
complacent. A small number of individuals in New Zealand
continue to express intent to undertake an act of violent
extremism. Some almost certainly have access to the basic
capabilities needed to carry out an attack.

“The
threat level of POSSIBLE is exactly what it says under our
new language – a terrorist attack in New Zealand is
assessed as possible. This is something we should all be
concerned about.

“When we talk about increasing
complexity, we mean a growing crossover of ideological and
none-ideological violence, and a greater ‘shopping
around’ between different ideologies by individuals.
Individuals fixated on violence with mixed, unstable or
unclear ideological perspectives remain a particular
concern. It is also getting harder to determine whether
individuals are ideologically driven, or just fixated on
violence in itself.

“It is important to note that,
as we’ve previously said, there is no one ideology which
dominates in the New Zealand threat environment. We see in
our investigations White Identity-Motivated Violent
Extremism and Faith-Motivated Violent Extremism, as well as
Politically-Motivated Violent Extremism and individuals
motivated by online conspiracy
theories.

“International events, including attacks
offshore, continue to feature in online extremist
narratives. This enables people to connect without knowing
the real identities and motivations of others they are
dealing with. However, generally speaking we are not seeing
this progressing from online rhetoric to violence targeted
within New Zealand. We do remain concerned about how young
people are being exposed to violent extremism in the online
environment.

“The most likely form of attack in New
Zealand remains someone acting alone, who has radicalised
online, uses basic weapons such as a knife or vehicle and
takes steps to avoid detection.

“As I’ve said many
times NZSIS is not all seeing and all knowing, and nor
should we be in our democracy. We work closely with domestic
and international partners, but national security is not
exclusively owned by us. The public has a vital role to
play. I encourage everyone to check out the range of
resources we have available, including our guide to recognising
the signs of violent extremism.

“If you have
information of concern you want to tell us about then get in
touch – and call Police on 111 if there is an urgent
threat to public safety.” said Mr
Hampton.

Notes:

New threat level definition
language

The Combined Threat Assessment Group (CTAG)
has adopted new language to define the national terrorism
threat level. This change was signalled by NZSIS in
2024.

The new definitions aim to explain the terrorism
threat level in a more meaningful and accessible way for the
public. NZSIS was also aware that some communities did not
feel the old definitions were a true reflection of the
threats they faced.

The new definitions retains the
five levels as previously used, but with new language for
each level.

While the current threat level remains
unchanged, the previous level of LOW is now POSSIBLE under
the new language.

Here are the new and previous threat
definitions for direct comparison:

Notes:

1. The
   National Terrorism Threat Level has been unchanged since
   November 2022. The current level is POSSIBLE – previously
   described as LOW under old language.
2. The National
   Terrorism Threat Level is continually assessed by the
   Combined Threat Assessment Group (CTAG) and can change at
   any time in response to global and domestic events and
   intelligence reporting. It is also subject to an annual
   review.
3. The National Terrorism Threat Level informs
   relevant government agencies about the likelihood of a
   terrorist attack in New Zealand to ensure that they are
   appropriately placed to mitigate any risks. However, it has
   become increasingly used by NZSIS as part of ongoing
   engagement with communities and sectors to raise awareness
   of national security risks.
4. Assessment of the
   National Terrorism Threat Level is carried out in
   consultation with agencies including the Department of the
   Prime Minister and Cabinet, New Zealand Police, Department
   of Corrections, New Zealand Defence Force, and the Ministry
   of Business, Innovation and
   Employment.

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