The government plans to pump billions
of extra dollars into the Defence Force, but there are
questions around just who it thinks we might end up using
the upgraded equipment against.
And there are also
concerns about what “trade-offs” might have to be made, in
terms of funding for other important things.
The long-awaited
Defence Capability Plan will see defence spending double
as a share of GDP within the next eight years, bringing it
to more than 2 percent of total spending.
It includes
a $12 billion boost over the next four years – $9 billion of
which is new money.
Among other things there will be
new missile systems and better maritime strike
capabilities.
University of Waikato professor Al
Gillespie told
RNZ it appeared New Zealand was joining a new “arms
race” in virtually doubling its defence spending. And Helen
Clark, former prime minister and ex-head of the United
Nations Development Programme, recently
said we were not under any threat of invasion from
anyone, so did not need to raise defence spending to a level
that
would make US President Donald Trump happy.
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“Well,
Helen’s had her time, hasn’t she?” Defence Minister Judith
Collins told Morning Report on Tuesday, saying it had
been 17 years since Clark saw a top-secret
briefing.
“I think the point is, the world has moved
on. We cannot look at the world and say, ‘Oh, it’s all just
going to be fine.’ It’s not fine, and we need to make sure
we do our part.”
Collins said New Zealand had
responsibilities to its Pacific neighbours.
“We do
need to have strike capacity. Not only are we living in New
Zealand, but we’re a maritime nation,” she said, also noting
the Defence Force’s role in handling weather events and
natural disasters.
“Just recently, we have given a
very big wake-up call, this country, when we had enormous
firepower directed down our area of the world in the Tasman
Sea.”
Three Chinese naval vessels were seen sailing in
international waters off Australia’s east coast and
conducting live-fire exercises in
February.
Collins dismissed concerns New Zealand
was contributing to an arms race.
“I don’t think China
is going to look at what we’re doing and suddenly be
frightened into spending more.”
As for whether the
money could be better spent elsewhere – for example, on the
struggling
health system, edible
school meals or the
existing Defence Force staff – Collins said defence was
also “key infrastructure”.
“There is no economic
security unless we have national security. We are living in
a very difficult geopolitical time, and frankly, we have to
deal with the fact that we live in this world – not the one
we would like it to be.”
She said Finance Minister
Nicola Willis’ upcoming Budget would be “very balanced” and
“very sensible”.
“The fact is, defence has been let
down for 35 years… We have to be able to maintain some of
our ability around defense, and that means we do need to
spend money. You can’t go 35 years of not spending and
cutting and not expect you’re going to have to spend some
money.”
Collins ruled out spending any of the new
billions on AI-powered drones, saying any drone the Defence
Force operated would be controlled by a human. They would
have lethal capabilities however, “just like humans
have”.
‘A war with China is not going to
happen’
Ex-defence minister and former National MP
Wayne Mapp disagreed that New Zealand was joining an arms
race, but conceded to Morning Report on Tuesday it
was a “step up, there’s no doubt about that”.
“We’re
now getting the P-8 to have missiles… so that’s a new
capability for New Zealand.”
The P-8 is a US-built
maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft which replaced
the old Orion fleet in 2023.
“The P-8s have obviously
always got that capability,” Mapp said. “We just buy a
standard P-8. We’re now going to put missiles on it. No
one’s really surprised about that. It’s been talked about
for many years, but now it’s actually gonna
happen.”
What is not clear is just who we might fire
missiles at. Mapp said they would likely only be used in the
case of a “major global war”.
“We’ve seen… China
being, you know, more assertive, more aggressive not just
with the patrols in the Tasman, but also how they’re
cultivating relationships in the Pacific. That’s changing
things in our part of the world.”
But he did not
believe China would be the target.
“In my view, a war
with China is not going to happen… What this is really all
about is deterrence and balance… they’ve been building up
for many years. This is really a response to the massive
build-up in the navy in particular, over the last 15, 20
years.”
Mapp believed New Zealand needed to pay its
way in the region.
“In alliances, each party to the
alliance has to play their part in that. You can’t just say,
‘Oh, well, Australia, you do all the heavy lifting, we, we
ain’t gonna do nothing.’ It just doesn’t work that
way.”
Australia recently
increased its defence budget, and the US has been urging
its NATO allies to
hike theirs to 5 percent of GDP.
Labour ‘broadly
supportive’
Labour leader Chris Hipkins said the
party backed the move to spend more on defence, but had
concerns about exactly what the money would be spent
on.
“The thing that I object to is the idea that you
just simply say ‘well, we’re going to arbitrarily spend this
much money on defense’ without thinking about what they get
spent on,” he told Morning Report.
He
acknowledged the coalition government’s preferences would
differ from a similar plan developed under the Labour-NZ
First-Green government in 2019, which went
under review in 2022 following the disruption caused by
Covid-19 and the “intensification of geo-strategic
competition”, notably Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine.
Hipkins backed Collins’ suggestion more money
would likely be spent on drones.
“If you look at the
role drones have played in the war in Ukraine, for example,
I don’t think any of that was evident when we released the
capability plan back in 2019, or certainly not evident to
the extent that it’s been used in Ukraine. “
Local
suppliers favoured
Willis earlier told First Up the
Defence Force was expected to buy what it could from New
Zealand suppliers, to help boost the domestic
economy.
“We have very clear procurement rules which
mean that Defence Force need to satisfy themselves that any
equipment they buy meets all of their standards and
requirements and represents good value for the
taxpayer.
“So it’s too early to say where each of
those individual pieces of equipment will be purchased…
We’ve given clear directions to the Defence Force that where
they can involve New Zealand businesses and
suppliers…
“It’s innovation, it’s tech, and
actually, we’re already exporting some of those products to
other markets, so it makes sense that our own Defence Force
would look to those New Zealand suppliers too.”
She
said New Zealand needed to be able to do its part in the
event a military response was required – here and abroad,
whether in combat or in aid.
“We need to be able to
monitor our own ocean space and that of the wider Pacific.
We need to be able to align with Australia. if there’s ever
a need for us jointly to defend our countries.
“And we
need to be prepared in some cases, on a case-by-case basis
to defend New Zealand’s interests and values and
international conflicts that might arise.”
Concerns
staff not the focus
A former soldier and defence
expert is hopeful the government’s long-awaited defense
capability plan will help breathe new life and confidence
into the country’s defense forces.
Retired Lieutenant
Colonel and former Defence attaché in the Pacific, Josh
Wineera, told Morning Report the boost made
sense.
“It looks as if that defence can is no simply
no longer simply being kicked down the road, as has been the
case for decades.
“When Prime Minister [Christopher]
Luxon last month said there is no prosperity without
security, he and the coalition government appeared to have
backed that up with some quite staggering and decisive
commitments.”
But he was concerned the new spending on
gear would not expand to personnel.
“In the document
itself, there was a lot of emphasis on the equipment and the
capabilities, not so much on all of the other things that
actually will make this work- which is about people and the
support, their conditions.
“I do hope that that comes
in the actual Budget or there is a complimentary financial
support for that.”
The Defence Force has recently shed
dozens of staff, and plans
to cut hundreds more roles, citing the need to “stay
within its Budget appropriation”. At the same time, it has
relaxed
its entry requirements to boost enlistment
numbers.
Wineera said Collins was right to rule out
AI-powered drones, but feared future drones would have it
baked in, such was the rapid advance in that particular
technology.
“I think we have to proceed really
carefully with
that.”
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