Kirsty
Johnston, Investigative journalist
As
floodwaters recede and damage assessments continue after
last week’s deadly storms, scrutiny is turning to whether
New Zealand is prepared for the next disaster – and how it
will pay for it.
One long-term economic
analysis shows New Zealand has developed a pattern of
spending heavily after disasters strike, while investing
comparatively little upfront to reduce future
risk.
“Our key problem is that we tend to respond to
every disaster in an ad hoc way,” said adaptation expert
Professor Bronwyn Hayward, from Canterbury University. “And
we’re treating every disaster individually.”
Treasury
flagged
the same issue in 2024, warning there is an 80 percent
chance New Zealand will experience another Cyclone
Gabrielle-scale event within the next 50 years, and
describing extreme weather as a repeat and growing fiscal
risk for the Crown, rather than a one-off
shock.
Despite those warnings, funding and planning
for climate adaptation has been scaled back by the current
government – even as recovery bills have climbed well over
$1b following Cyclone Gabrielle, the Auckland Anniversary
floods and last year’s Tasman floods.
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Experts say the
bill will only continue to rise as climate change worsens,
unless the nation makes urgent changes to how it funds
climate adaptation.
“You end up paying six times more
for emergency repair than you would if you’d actually
planned ahead and planned the upgrades or planned a city,”
says Emily Mabin Sutton, chief executive of the Climate
Club, a group that organises climate action. “Basically – we
can brush our teeth each day or get a painful root
canal…and at the moment we’re going to the dentist
screaming.”
The government has argued resilience
investment continues, but through mainstream infrastructure
and regional funding rather than ring-fenced
funds.
Deadly storms and mounting recovery
costs
Heavy rain triggered widespread
flooding, evacuations and landslides across parts of the
North Island last week, including Bay of Plenty, Northland,
the Coromandel and Tai Rāwhiti. In Mount
Maunganui, six people were killed when a landslide
struck a campground after intense rainfall destabilised
steep hillsides. Two more died in a slip
in nearby Papamoa, and another
in Northland when his car was swept down a
river.
Cabinet approved $2.2
million in immediate recovery funding, including for the
marae which opened its doors to evacuees. Further support is
expected as damage estimates are finalised. Gisborne
District Mayor Rehette Stoltz estimated the damage caused to
her region alone during last week’s storms will cost $21.5m
to fix.
The money has already been criticised as “not
enough” by opposition parties, who say there needs to be
more funding for resilience, not just
recovery.
“Aotearoa New Zealand needs to get out of
the pattern of crisis and response. We know that climate
change charged weather events are going to become more
frequent and more extreme, and we need to plan accordingly,”
said Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick.
Since its
election in 2023, the government has removed or reduced most
forms of dedicated climate adaptation and resilience
funding.
In Budget 2024, Finance Minister Nicola
Willis ended the ring-fencing of Emissions Trading Scheme
revenue for the Climate Emergency Response Fund. The
government also dismantled a $6 billion national resilience
fund created after Cyclone Gabrielle, arguing resilience
spending should instead be assessed through standard Budget
processes.
At the same time, scientific capacity has
been reduced. NIWA has confirmed job cuts affecting climate
modelling, physical oceanography and marine science roles,
while the government discontinued Te Ara Paerangi – Future
Pathways, a programme intended to strengthen the science
system supporting long-term climate risk
assessment.
Planned adaptation actions quietly
discontinued
The policy framework intended to guide
climate adaptation has also been scaled back.
When the
Ministry for the Environment released the first National
Adaptation Plan in 2022, it was intended to translate
climate risk assessments into practical decisions about
where and how the country builds, protects infrastructure,
and supports communities facing growing hazards.
At
the centre of the plan were tools designed to help
governments and councils move beyond ad hoc responses to
extreme weather. These included guidance for central
government policymakers on incorporating climate risk into
decision-making, updated methodologies for local climate
risk assessments, and a framework for councils to identify
when areas should be protected, redesigned or retreated from
as risks escalate over time.
An official addendum
table published in January 2025 shows much of that work has
since been stopped, leaving decisions about rebuilding and
upgrading exposed assets largely to existing regulatory and
funding settings.
Economic and social adaptation
measures were also discontinued, including work on income
insurance and welfare reforms intended to support
communities facing climate shocks, as well as targeted
support for Māori small-business resilience and
sector-specific adaptation initiatives in areas such as
tourism.
Swarbrick said the fact funding for Māori
resilience had been cut was “gutting”.
“That would
have enabled more investment in building that resilience, as
opposed to what [the government] are doing right now, which
is patting iwi Māori on the back and simply reimbursing
them.”
While national direction on natural hazards
remains in place through planning instruments, the National
Adaptation Plan was intended to provide the tools, standards
and coordination needed to act on that
direction.
Mabin Sutton said the cuts had real-world
impacts for communities wanting to make decisions about
their futures.
“Over 65 percent of New Zealand’s
population in major infrastructure sits within 5 kilometres
of the coast. And we haven’t got a map yet of where is the
most risky place to live or the safer places to
live.”
The new plan
The government says it has
not abandoned climate adaptation. In October 2025, the
Ministry for the Environment announced a National Adaptation
Framework, setting out 16 initial actions focused on
improving coordination across agencies, clarifying roles and
responsibilities, and establishing principles for adaptation
planning.
It will also develop new national hazard
datasets, and a requirement for councils to develop
adaptation plans for priority areas.
But that
framework does not include a dedicated funding mechanism,
and it does not reinstate many of the delivery tools
discontinued from the first National Adaptation
Plan.
One of its central initiatives – a national
flood-mapping programme – is not expected to produce its
first public outputs until 2027, while decisions on
cost-sharing have
been deferred until the next parliamentary term. The
Climate Change Commission has warned that the lack of
clarity about who pays for adaptation remains a major
barrier to progress.
The weighting towards crisis
response was last year captured in economic analysis
commissioned by insurance company IAG, which examined
central government spending on natural hazards over
time.
The report found spending had increased but is
dominated by post-event recovery, highlighting that recovery
spending following events such as Cyclone Gabrielle and the
Auckland Anniversary floods ran into the billions of
dollars, while investment aimed at reducing future exposure
remains comparatively small and episodic.
Sapere
Research Group, which completed the report, found severe
weather events requiring large-scale Crown intervention are
occurring more frequently. It also noted that central
government increasingly acts as the funder of last resort,
particularly where homes, infrastructure and communities
remain exposed to known flood and landslip risks.
The
insurance sector is also beginning to reflect those risks
from climate more explicitly. This week, AA
Insurance confirmed it had temporarily stopped offering
new home and landlord policies in parts of Westport because
of flood risk, citing elevated exposure.
‘Significant
fiscal cost’ must be shared, government says
When
questioned about the funding cuts this week, the government
said resilience investment continues, but through mainstream
infrastructure and regional funding.
Prime Minister
Christopher Luxon has said climate and resilience spending
should be assessed through standard Budget processes rather
than ring-fenced funds. Finance Minister Willis has cited
flood protection works, stopbanks and transport upgrades as
evidence resilience investment is ongoing, arguing such
projects should compete alongside other infrastructure
priorities.
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts told
RNZ that adaptation involves “a significant fiscal cost”
that will need to be shared across society over
time.
“The work we are doing with the National
Adaptation Framework will give us an enduring system that
prepares New Zealand for the impacts of climate change,
while keeping costs to our society as low as possible,”
Watts said in a statement to RNZ.
“Our approach is
about making sure people have the right information to make
the right decisions. This will allow people and businesses
to plan ahead and make decisions that lower risk and boost
resilience.”
Watts said the government’s framework
included shifting spending towards reducing risk before
climate-related events like floods or storms
happen.
He pointed to funding available through the
$1.2b regional infrastructure fund, including $200m
ring-fenced for flood protection, but has said councils will
need to develop adaptation plans and then work with central
government and other stakeholders on how costs are
met.
Meanwhile, the latest climate projections
indicate New Zealand is already around 1.1C warmer than in
the early 1900s, and could be up to 3C hotter by the end of
the century if global greenhouse gas emissions are not
rapidly reduced.
Scientists say that warming will
increase the frequency and severity of floods, landslides,
storms, heatwaves and droughts, while also placing growing
strain on emergency response systems, public health,
insurance availability and government budgets.
Hayward
said the stakes were clear. “Children that have been born in
2020 and since will face over four times the number of
extreme events in their lifetimes than any of us who were 55
in 2020 will ever experience in our remaining lives,” she
said.
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