Craig
McCulloch, Acting Political
Editor
Analysis: New Zealand politics has long
acknowledged a truth of coalition life – sooner or later,
everyone swallows a dead rat. Less examined is the art of
spitting one back up.
This term has already delivered
its fair share of deceased squeakers. National had to
stomach the
Treaty principles debate. ACT swallowed some corporate
subsidies. And now NZ First has gagged
its way through the Regulatory Standards
Bill.
Expired vermin are a built-in feature of
MMP, as every party makes compromises for the greater
governing good.
In 2018, the Green Party found itself
voting
for the waka-jumping bill despite years of opposition
because of an agreement secured by NZ First during coalition
negotiations with Labour.
(Ironically, the Greens
later used
the law to eject one of their own, but that is beside
the current point.)
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As the 2020 election grew closer,
then-co-leader James Shaw sensed an opportunity. He pledged
a new intention to repeal the law and then teamed
up with National in an unsuccessful attempt to do just
that. NZ First leader Winston Peters was furious,
labelling the Greens “unstable and untrustworthy”.
In
response, Shaw said his party had kept its word by voting
for the legislation, but had never promised not to later
revoke it if the opportunity arose.
Asked whether he
was playing political games, Shaw
grinned: “I learn from the master.”
Five years on,
the master is performing his own version of rodent
regurgitation.
Peters initiated the disgorgement on
Thursday, suddenly announcing NZ First would campaign next
year on repealing the Regulatory Standards Act – the very
law the party had voted for just a week earlier.
The
position was not entirely a surprise. NZ First had not been
quiet about its disquiet over ACT’s flagship bill, believing
it to be anti-democratic.
And the bill’s critics were
aware of the dynamic too. Greenpeace last week issued a
statement headlined: “Winston Peters and NZ First hand
victory to ACT over corporate Bill of Rights.”
Still,
the speed of the turnaround was stunning.
Just days
earlier, NZ First’s Casey Costello had stood in the chamber
to deliver the party’s votes, declaring “no hesitation” in
supporting the bill.
With hindsight, she should’ve
perhaps demonstrated a hint of hesitation.
“No hay
problema,” Peters told reporters on Thursday. “We’ll fix
it.”
But ACT’s leader David Seymour certainly regarded
it as quite the problema. Speaking to media shortly after
the news broke, Seymour fired back, reviving memories of the
old acrimony between the two.
It was not quite the
venom of name-calling past – not crook, nor cuckold – but it
does not get much more serious than an allegation of
coalition disloyalty, or at least future
disloyalty.
“It sounds like he’s getting ready to go
with Labour again,” Seymour said. “He seems to be lining up
for a different kind of coalition.”
The sharp rebuke
should be seen in light of recent polling. In recent months,
NZ First has surged
past ACT in popularity, each trending in opposite
directions.
Both parties are hunting a similar pool of
voters: those frustrated with the status quo but not
prepared to entertain the left.
It does Seymour no
harm to remind those voters that Peters has gone with Labour
before, and could do so again. Just the seed of doubt could
be enough to win some over to the ACT camp.
The
prospect is not entirely outlandish either.
Yes,
Peters has said he will not work with Labour under its
leader Chris Hipkins. Asked about the prospect on Thursday,
Peters chuckled: “Don’t make me laugh.”
Likewise,
Hipkins has said such an arrangement would be “very
unlikely”.
But the polls are tight, and if voters
deliver a hung Parliament on election night, be sure all
sorts of conversations will be happening between all sorts
of parties.
Reinforced narrative
For National,
the coalition contretemps are a more serious problema. They
reinforce the narrative that Prime Minister Christopher
Luxon lacks firm control over his warring
offsiders.
As well, it undercuts National’s arguments
that a Labour-Green-Te Pāti Māori arrangement would be
chaotic, when its own side is hardly serene.
Visiting
New Plymouth on Thursday, Luxon waved away RNZ’s questions
about the infighting, suggesting it was simply normal
pre-election positioning. The coalition was “absolutely not”
falling apart, he said.
But the increasing feuding
does put National in an awkward spot.
On Thursday,
campaign chair Chris Bishop refused to say whether National
would or would not repeal the Regulatory Standards Act in
future, a bizarre spectacle given it had just voted it into
law.
“Peters has set out his stall,” Bishop
said. “We will set out our stall in due
course.”
This is not what National wants to be talking
about right now. Like the rest of us, its MPs saw the
latest IPSOS survey.
They need to be talking about
the economy, the cost of living and health if they are to
win back the public’s trust. Coalition squabbles only muddy
the message.
None of it bodes well for an easy final
year of governing. Both Peters and Seymour need to take
care. They can exchange a few blows here and there, but
neither can afford to burn the relationship.
All signs
are that all three coalition parties will need each other
again if they are to hold on to power next year.
And
no dead rat is as hard to swallow as a return to the
opposition
benches.
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