Lillian
Hanly, Political
reporter
- Foreign Minister Winston Peters
is in Washington DC for meetings with US government
officials, including Secretary of State Marco
Rubio - It comes as a global ‘trade
war’ continues - Prime Minister
Christopher Luxon has taken part in a phone call with the
Ukraine ‘coalition of the
willing’
Analysis – Winston
Peters is no stranger to international diplomacy – he first
became the minister of foreign affairs in October 2005, 20
years ago this year. As Peters himself would say, it’s not
his first rodeo.
But his next rodeo – a trip to meet
his counterpart in Washington DC – comes during a period of
international volatility, where rules seem to be constantly
changing. It’s a time in which previously accepted ties and
relationships are vulnerable, uncertain and being
tested.
Global trade wars are underway. Geopolitical
tensions are bubbling – in the Pacific region, this has
taken the form of China sending warships into the Tasman
Sea. From Yemen, to Gaza, to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,
diplomacy keeps failing to meaningfully assert
itself.
And Peters, the first coalition government
member to meet face to face with the US administration, will
be treading lightly and taking the opportunity to
listen.
No news is good news, as they say, and Peters
arrives in Washington DC at a time when New Zealand is not
on the US’ radar – and potentially not at immediate risk of
President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ policy.
What
Winston Peters is arriving in to
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Peters has hit DC
after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s extraordinary
reception at the White House – “acrimony and chaos” as
the BBC reporter in the room described it – and the
resulting pause
of military aid and intelligence sharing; after US
tariff wars with Canada, Mexico, China, and even – briefly –
with Colombia, as well as rejecting Australia’s
bid for a concession to tariffs; after threats against
Europe, including a
200 percent tariff on wine; and after US aid
cuts worth roughly $60 billion globally.
A
politician who attracts plenty of attention at home, Peters’
three-day visit to the capitol will be about attracting the
right kind of attention.
The potential for punishing
or retaliatory tariffs, or other consequences, from the US
is so significant that Phil Goff – respected across the
political spectrum – was sacked
as New Zealand’s ambassador to the UK for remarks that
were deemed too political, leaving his position “untenable.
Peters said he did not want to do it, but he removed Goff
from the role, signalling just how seriously the foreign
minister is considering the current
climate.
Furthermore, Peters has given no indication
specifically of what he will discuss with Secretary of State
Marco Rubio when they meet. Asked in Wellington before
travelling, Peters indicated it would not be appropriate to
share those comments with the media first, before having
said them directly to their intended recipient. But his
face-to-face meeting (in the works since the Trump
administration was sworn in) could not have come at a better
time.
New York visit
Peters’ first stop was in
New York City where he met with UN officials, as well as the
Canadian ambassador to the US, Bob Rae, and president
emeritus of the Council of Foreign Relations, Dr Richard
Haas.
Haas is currently senior counsellor with a US
investment banking firm that provides strategic advice and
consultancy services. He is a former US State Department
director for policy planning, and was a principal advisor to
Secretary of State Colin Powell. He served under three
Presidents (Reagan, Bush I and Bush II). His experience
makes him one of the foremost political intellects for the
Republicans and its administrations. A spokesperson for
Peters said Haas provided fascinating insights and
commentary on US foreign policy direction and analysis of
the new administration.
Peters then met with Rae, the
ambassador and permanent representative of Canada to the
United Nations. A spokesperson for the minister said the
pair discussed a range of political issues over lunch,
including the geopolitical climate and current
challenges.
Rae has been Canada’s UN representative
since 2020 and was the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada
from 2011 to 2013. He was closely affiliated to the Trudeau
government, now
led by Mark Carney. Given his political experience and
allegiance, he has a clear idea of the current challenges
faced by Canada as a result of Trump’s decisions and the tit
for tat on tariffs, which have occurred early in his term.
In comparison, New Zealand has not had the same exposure to
the new administration, and Peters would have been able to
gather a first-hand account of that experience as he heads
into his own meetings this week.
The Rubio
meeting
Peters meets with Rubio on Wednesday morning
(NZT). First and foremost, meeting face-to-face with his
counterpart gives Peters the chance to establish a rapport
with Rubio – who he does not have a prior relationship with
– and reaffirm the ties between New Zealand and the
US.
When Peters announced the trip, he said the United
States is one of New Zealand’s “closest and most important
partners”, and spoke of the chance to “engage directly” on
“our mutually beneficial bilateral relationship”.
He
said a wide range of international issues will be discussed
during the visit, both in New York and in Washington
DC.
“Whether Ukraine, Gaza, the Indo-Pacific or
security cooperation, there’s a lot to discuss.”
The
silence when it comes to specifics is strategic. Peters is
in the US to listen – though, he has acknowledged he will
always advocate for New Zealand’s best interests, including
tariff exemptions. These meetings are an opportunity to
better understand the current administration in relation to
New Zealand, and to what extent any decisions by the
president might impact New Zealand directly. That will
better inform any decisions the coalition government makes
when responding.
Trade, defence, and security will no
doubt be on the agenda.
Trade
It is possible
New Zealand could be caught up in new and ongoing trade
wars, despite its best endeavours to hide in plain sight.
Concerns around tariffs on steel and aluminium, and on
agriculture, have the coalition monitoring the situation, to
use diplomatic speech.
But here, too, New Zealand is
treading softly. When recently asked about giving more
support to Ukraine, Peters counselled against “startling at
shadows”. The coalition will want to be certain of the
impact of any tariff drift before responding to it. The
lessons of Canada, Mexico, China and Europe are that things
can escalate. Tit-for-tat is not a game New Zealand will
want to play against Trump.
Trade Minister Todd McClay
had a call with his counterpart, the newly confirmed US
Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, at the weekend. They
spoke about the “strong and mutually beneficial trade
relationship between New Zealand and the United
States”.
McClay said they spoke about the “importance
of open and fair market access between our countries and
agreed to continue dialogue as the US administration’s trade
policies are implemented”.
Speaking from
India, McClay added they “didn’t get into any detail
over tariffs, but certainly made the case for why New
Zealand respects the rules”.
“We don’t change our
currency, we don’t put in place barriers to exclude others,
and that we abide by those rules.”
The call comes at
just the right time – on the eve of Peters’ Washington visit
– paving the way for open dialogue in person on the
issue.
Defence
More and more, New Zealand is
being drawn onto the global stage when it comes to security
and defence in an increasingly strained geostrategic
environment.
Peters had another well-timed meeting
recently with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing. It
came just as China sent military ships into the Tasman Sea,
which
Australia and New Zealand monitored closely. After this,
he told RNZ 2 percent of GDP when it comes to defence
spending is
no longer enough.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer
has already signalled an increase to defence spending, paid
for by cutting foreign aid.
Both Japan
and Australia
have been under pressure from the US to increase their
defence spending.
In New Zealand, the long-awaited
Defence Capability Plan (DCP) is due to be released “soon”,
according to minister Judith Collins. It has been delayed a
number of times but given it will outline major investments
in defence for the next 15 years and the current financial
strain the government is under, the coalition will want
to get this right.
According to Collins, the DCP
will detail what is required to modernise the NZ Defence
Force to operate in what is “an increasingly unstable
world”. It will specify what resources, equipment and
support are required.
Continued involvement in the
Five Eyes information sharing arrangement, and a potential
membership of AUKUS Pillar Two could also require some more
heavy lifting when it comes to defence and security
arrangements.
Ukraine
Rubio was in the Oval
Office during the meeting between Presidents Trump and
Zelensky. He also secured agreement from Ukraine for a
ceasefire. The meeting with Rubio may be an opportunity for
Peters to get an indication of what a potential ceasefire
might look like. The US may also seek an indication from
Peters this week as to what capability New Zealand has to
offer in a peacekeeping operation.
Following the Oval
Office meeting, the United Kingdom and Europe jointly
created the ‘coalition of the willing’ to ensure
peacekeeping forces will be available, should the war
end.
Last week, Collins indicated New Zealand had
not been asked to join the ‘coalition of the willing’.
Since then, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has taken part
in a call with other leaders of the coalition. Speaking from
India overnight – where he announced the start of a
comprehensive free trade negotiation – Luxon said New
Zealand still hadn’t had any “specific asks from us at this
point in time, so it’s all very premature”. He said it was
an opportunity to get an update on the different lines of
diplomatic effort in ensuring a ceasefire.
He did,
however, have some words for Russia.
“At any point in
time, Russia can stop this war, and that would be our first
request and port of call is that they can stop what is an
immoral and illegal war today. That is very much the
case.”
Luxon said the “ball is now in the court of
Russia” when it came to the potential ceasefire agreement
currently on the table. As it stands, New Zealand is not
part of the ‘coalition of the willing’ said Luxon, and a
Cabinet decision would need to be made before the country
joined.
“There is no peace plan today, and until there
is one, there’s no ask on us. And again, that’s something we
take back to our Cabinet.”
The Pacific
Later
on Monday, Peters will meet with the acting head of US
Agency for International Development (USAID), Peter Marocco,
and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz.
The inward
shifting focus of the US also means the potential shift away
of building and securing ties in the Indo-Pacific – where
China has been growing its influence. It follows the Cook
Islands securing
agreements directly with China, without consulting New
Zealand.
The Trump administration has eliminated
83 percent of programmes run by USAID. There are some
concerns this could leave
a gap which China will fill.
The Lowy Institute,
which reports that “over the past decade, the United States
has ranked as the fifth-largest bilateral donor to the
Pacific, after Australia, China, Japan, and New Zealand,
contributing more than $2 billion”, assesses
that the “US aid freeze won’t break the Pacific, but it
will create unnecessary disruptions”.
New Zealand and
Australia can increase aid, but if they do not, Pacific
nations may look to China to fill any
gaps.
Furthermore, the long-term impact of Trump’s
decision to withdraw
from the Paris Agreement, alongside estimates that under
the Trump administration, US greenhouse gas emissions levels
will rise 36
percent higher than the previous US policy by 2035, may
be strongly felt in the Pacific. More aid money will have
been needed in the region, even before the USAID
freeze.
Peters will look to understand exactly what
the US withdrawal from the Pacific means, and what is
required by New Zealand and Australia, and others, to fill
that
gap.
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