Trying to capitalise on the electoral success of US
President Donald Trump, now that his policies are having
real-world effects, is proving to be a big mistake for
conservative leaders.
Australian voters have delivered
a landslide win for the incumbent Labor Party, returning
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for a second term with a
clear majority of seats.
When he said in his victory
speech that Australians had “voted for Australian
values”, an unspoken message was that they’d firmly
rejected Trumpian values.
Meanwhile, opposition and
Liberal Party leader Peter Dutton had such a bad election he
lost his own seat. While not the only reason for his
electoral demise, Dutton’s adoption of themes associated
with Trump backfired.
As recently as mid-February,
however, it was a completely different story. Opinion polls
were projecting
Dutton’s Coalition to win. Betting markets followed
suit, pricing in a change of government.
But by March,
Labor had pulled ahead in the polls, and exceeded
expectations in the election itself. As one
commentator put it, the Liberals were “reduced to a
right-wing populist party that is all but exiled from the
biggest cities”.
Reversal of fortune
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Where,
then, did Dutton go wrong? Commentators identified
a number of reasons, including his “culture wars”
and being depicted by Labor as “Trump-lite”.
Following
a Trumpian pathway turned out to be a strategic blunder. And
Dutton’s downfall mirrors Conservative leader Pierre
Poilievre’s defeat in Canada’s election on April
28.
In January, Canada’s incumbent centre-left
Liberals were heading for defeat to the Conservatives. But
there were two gamechangers: the Liberals switched leaders
from Justin Trudeau to Mark Carney, and Trump caused a
national uproar with his aggressive tariffs and his call for
Canada to become the 51st US state.
Pre-election
opinion polls then did a dramatic flip in favour of the
Liberals, who went on to win their fourth election in a
row.
Poilievre’s campaign had adopted
elements of the Trump style, such as attacking
“wokeness” and using derogatory
nicknames for opponents.
His strategy failed as
soon as Trump rolled out “America First” policies
contrary to Canadians’ economic interests and national
pride. The takeaway for serious right-wing leaders in
liberal democracies is clear: let Trump do Trump; his brand
is toxic.
Not a universal trend
Trump’s
actions are harming America’s allies. His tariffs,
disregard for the rule of law, and tough policies on
migrants, affirmative action and climate change have seen
voters outside the US react with self-protective
patriotism.
A perceived association with Trump’s
brand has now upended the electoral fortunes of (so far) two
centre-right parties that had been in line to win, and had
been banking on the 2024 MAGA success somehow rubbing off on
them.
Admittedly, what has been dubbed the “Trump
slump” isn’t a universal trend.
In Germany,
the centre-left Social Democratic-led government was ousted
in February, in spite of Trump ally Elon Musk’s unhelpful
support for the far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative
for Germany (AfD) party.
And in the United Kingdom,
the populist Reform UK party has risen above 25%, while
Labour has fallen from 34% in last year’s election to the
low 20s in recent polls.
But other governing
centre-left parties are seeing an upside of the Trump
effect. Norway’s next election is on September 8. In early
January it looked like the incumbent Labour Party would be
trounced by the Conservatives and the right-wing Progress
Party.
Opinion polls dramatically flipped in early
February, however, boosting Labour from below 20% back into
the lead, hitting 30%. If that trend is sustained, Prime
Minister Jonas Gahr Støre will get another term in
office.
Denmark’s governing Social Democrats have
enjoyed a small polling boost, too, since Trump declared
he’d like to take Greenland off their
hands.
Lessons for NZ’s left and right
The
common denominator underlying these shifts to the left seems
to be the Trump effect. Voters in countries normally closely
allied with the US are turning away from Trump-adjacent
politicians.
In 2024, elections tended
to go against incumbents. But, for now at least, people
are rallying patriotically around centre-left, sitting
governments.
Ironically, Trump is harming leaders who
could have been his allies. Unrepentant as always, the man
himself seemed proud
of the impact he had in Canada.
In Australia and
New Zealand, polls in mid-2024 showed support
for Trump was growing – heading well above 20%.
Australia’s election suggests that trend may now be past
its peak.
In New Zealand, with debate over ACT’s
contentious Treaty Principles Bill behind it, and despite NZ
First leader Winston Peters’ overt
culture-war rhetoric (which may appeal to his 6% support
base), the right-wing coalition government’s polling shows
it could be on track for a second term – for the time
being.
While the Trump effect may have benefited
centre-left parties in Australia and Canada, polling for New
Zealand’s Labour opposition is softer than at the start of
the year.
While “America First” policies continue
to damage the global economy, centre-right leaders who learn
the lesson will quietly distance themselves from the Trump
brand, while maintaining cordial relations with the White
House.
Centre-left leaders, however, could do worse
than follow Anthony Albanese’s example of not getting
distracted by “Trump-lite” and instead promoting his own
country’s values of fairness and mutual respect.
Grant
Duncan, Teaching Fellow in Politics and
International Relations, University
of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
This
article is republished from The
Conversation under a Creative Commons license.
Read the original
article.
